Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
257 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 1997

LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TS
ACTIVITY STILL EVIDENT ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNG.
TRENDS FM IR SATL LOOP THOUGH SHOWS THESE CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING WITH
TIME AND WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCT CI BY SUNRISE IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
GROUND MSTR VERY HIGH FM YESTERDAYS PRECIP AND SKIES PROGD TO CLR
OUT ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND PROFILES...SOME FOG HAS DVLPD ALBIT LIGHT
BUT STILL FEEL A MENTION OF IT IN MORNG ZN PACKAGE WOULDN'T HURT.

AS FOR THE FCST...EVENING RAOB WIND DATA AT KMFL AND KTBW ALONG WITH
WV LOOP INDICATES MID/UPR LVL LOW ACRS THE SRN MOST PEN VCNTY OF THE
STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS PROG THIS LOW TO LIFT W-NWWD INTO
THE SERN GLFMX THRU TON...THEN BECOME DIFUSED ON SUNDAY. SHEAR AXIS
EXTNDG NEWD ACRS THE CNTRL PEN ATTM ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DVLPMT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CNVTN ACRS THE CWA. THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY THOUGH WL BE TO FIGURE OUT
WHERE THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE WL SET UP AS OVERALL STEERING FLOW
SHOULD CONT TO BE A BIT CHAOTIC AGAIN TDY UNTIL MID/UPR LOW DRIFTS
FURTHER W TON AND SFC RDG AXIS DRIFTS A BIT N ALLOWING LOW/MID LVL
FLOW TO BECOME MORE WLY ON SUNDAY. IN LOOKING AT MODEL DATA SFC AND
UPR LVL FEATURES APPEAR TO BE HANDLED WELL...BUT NGM LOOKS A BIT LOW
WITH POPS AND QPF OUTPUT ALONG WITH TRYING TO BRING IN DRIER AIR
(LWR PW'S FM THE S ON SUNDAY). ATTM I PREFER THE WETTIER LOOKING AVN
AND ETA SOLUTIONS AND WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST GOOD CHC CAT FOR POPS
TDY...SLIGHT CHC TON AND 50-60% POPS INTERIOR AND 40% COASTAL ON SUN
AS WLY FLOW DVLPS FAVORING MORE OF AN INTERIlOR/ERN MOST LOCATIONS
CONVECTIVE REGIME. AS FOR TMPS WITH UPR LVL RDG CONTG TO BREAK DOWN
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO LVLS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-051530-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 1997

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND SOME SMALL
HAIL.

ALL RESIDENTS AND MARINERS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE INDOORS
WHILE MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO A SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO
TELEVISION...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND OR
WARNINGS SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY.

MCMICHAEL