Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
307 PM EDT THU MAY 22 1997

FRONT MAY BE ABOUT STATIONARY ALONG A CRYSTAL RIVER TO CAPE CANAVERAL
LINE THIS EARLY AFTN. WEAK 5H VORT IMPULSE...AMPLE HEATING ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT GENERATING SCTD TSTMS N CNTRL FA SEWD THRU E CNTRL PNSULA.
SUSPECT TSTMS WILL CONT TO BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD OVER INTERIOR CNTRL
PNSULA...BUT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY PROPAGATE
FROM THIS CONVECTION TO FIRE NEW TSTMS INTO S CNTRL PNSULA BEFORE
A DIURNAL DEMISE. SO WOULD FAVOR DIMINISHED EVE POPS TO THE GULF COAST
WITH LITTLE OR NOTHING FOR MANATEE...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE AND LEE.

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TNGT WITH RAIN MOISTED NELY FLO BRIDGING THRU FNT.
FOR FRI WITH CONTD RIDING ALFT...AND NO 5H VORT IMPULSES...WOULD XPT
ONLY WIDELY SCTD DIURNAL TSTMS OVER THE PNSULA...POTENTIALLY FAVORING
THE GULF COAST ZONES WITH INTERACTION OF OLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZES.

MOS TEMPS SEEM OK FOR FRI BUT POPS SEEM HI.
DMR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-222000-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
1210 PM EDT THU MAY 22 1997

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND PENINSULA
   THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OR A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSLA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST
CONCENTRATED AND POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EVENTUALLY EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM BROOKSVILLE TO LAKELAND TO SEBRING TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
TAMPA AREA TO ARCADIA...WITH THE LEAST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM ST PETERSBURG SOUTHWARD THROUGH SARASOTA AND
FORT MYERS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN INVERNESS AND ORLANDO
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONGER INLAND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 30
TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OF
RAIN. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS SIGHTED.

DMR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-222000-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
1210 PM EDT THU MAY 22 1997

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND PENINSULA
   THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OR A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSLA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST
CONCENTRATED AND POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EVENTUALLY EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM BROOKSVILLE TO LAKELAND TO SEBRING TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
TAMPA AREA TO ARCADIA...WITH THE LEAST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM ST PETERSBURG SOUTHWARD THROUGH SARASOTA AND
FORT MYERS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN INVERNESS AND ORLANDO
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONGER INLAND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 30
TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OF
RAIN. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS SIGHTED.

DMR