Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
859 PM CDT WED MAY 14 1997

AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING IN THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLIER THIS
EVENING...THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TO THE LARGE
THUNDERSTORM CELL THAT HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE BORDEN AND
SCURRY COUNTY LINE. THIS CELL MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT REACHES
NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY BUT I WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH THE
NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. OTHER STORMS IN
MARTIN COUNTY ARE ALSO HANGING IN THERE SO FAR. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
FORMED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS WHILE THE MID LEVEL CAP HAS
PREVENTED STORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR ACROSS OUR REGION.

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION LOOK SLIM AS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS NOT BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW MOST STORMS TO WEAKEN BY
MIDNIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL
REACH NORTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z BUT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT REACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANYHOW...RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT CAN REMAIN AT 40 PERCENT FOR
MITCHELL AND STERLING COUNTIES...REDUCED TO 20 OR 30 PERCENT FOR
REMAINDER OF AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO TO
SONORA LINE...AND DROPPED TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR EASTERN CONCHO
VALLEY...EASTERN BIG COUNTRY...AND HEARTLAND. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH EWX...WE AGREED TO DROP ALL MENTION OF RAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.

WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LOWS BETWEEN 60
AND 65 DEGREES REGIONWIDE...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT WIND
AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

10

TXZ049-053-054-064-065-071-072-076-077-150240-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
920 PM CDT WED MAY 14 1997

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY...THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONCHO VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 920 PM...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

10