Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS San Diego, CA

SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT SUN AUG 3 1997

                          ...SYNOPSIS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WILL TRIGGER MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE HOT WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

                          ...DISCUSSION...

NTRANS STILL UNAVAILABLE. IT WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL TODAY.

CONVECTION FIRING IN THE SBD MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NGM
INITIALIZED THE VORTEX OVER NW NEW MEXICO BETTER THAN THE ETA AND THE
AVN...EVEN THOUGH THE VORT CENTRE WAS TOO FAR NE.  THE NGM MOVES THIS
FTR SLOWLY N INTO WESTERN AZ TONIGHT. GIVEN THE 18Z POSITION ON
RAMSDIS AND THE WEAK 500 MB FLOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE
MOVING IT TOO QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE SOUTHERN
DESERTS AND THE MTNS IN A PREFERRED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY. ALL THREE MODELS CONTINUE THE MONSOONAL FLOW THRU THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THIS SHORTWAVE DRIFTS INTO THE HEART OF THE RIDGE IN NW AZ ON
TUESDAY. SOURCE OF MOISTURE REMAINS UNINTERRUPTED BUT RISING HTS WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION DURING TUE AND WED.

HIGH TEMPS A LTL COOLER AT THE COAST TODAY.  EXPECT SIMILAR
TMPS TOMORROW. AVN AND FMR INCREASE FCST HIGHS TUESDAY AS RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD AND HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO BLAST
FURNACE LEVELS.

SAN BB 068/078 067/083 067 060110

MOEDE