Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 AM CST SAT MAR 1 1997

MAIN FCST DILEMMA WILL BE WITH POPS AGAIN.

300MB FLOW CONTINUES TO SHOW 100+KT JET ENERGY PUSHING S OUT OF PAC NW
INTO THE TROF ACROSS THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL HELP TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES AND S PLAINS KEEPING TRAJECTORY FURTHER S THAN
YDY THINKING.

SFC DWPTNS BACK INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF GD S FLOW
YDY AHEAD OF LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL KS.  CDFNT ASSOC WITH LOW WILL
PUSH E TODAY AS LOW QUICKLY SWEEPS NE WITH STG SW TO NE FLOW ALOFT.
FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH HIGHER DWPNTS AND PRODUCE SHRA TDY ACROSS
THE CWA.  WOULDNT RULE OUT SCT TSRA ESPECIALLY IN E ZONES BUT
INSTABILITY REALLY LACKING ATTM.

AS MAIN UPR LVL SHRTWV PUSHES E INTO LWR MS VLY TDY...SHOULD SEE SFC
LOW STRENGTHEN AND PUSH NE ALONG CDFNT.  THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHC
FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA FOR THIS EVE/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS E 2/3
OF CWA.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TDY WITH CLDS AND THEN FROPA...SHOULD SEE BEST
WARMING DURING THE MORNING.  WILL GO WITH COOLER FWC NUMBERS TODAY.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TODAY...

SGF...CLDY.  50% SHRA/TSRA.  HIGH 55-60.  S10-15 BECMG NW10-20.
JLN...CLDY.  50% SHRA/TSRA.  HIGH AROUND 60.  S10-15 BECMG NW10-20.
UNO...CLDY WITH AREAS OF FG.  70% SHRA/TSRA.  HIGH 60-65.  S10-20.
VIH...CLDY.  60% SHRA/TSRA.  HIGH 55-60.  S10-15 BECMG NW10-20.
AIZ...CLDY.  50% SHRA/TSRA.  HIGH IN THE MID 50S.  S10-15 BECMG
      NW10-20.

CCF...
SGF WE 057/033 048/029 055 05571
JLN WB 059/033 050/030 056 05551

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST SAT MAR 1 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...

A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  VERY MILD AND HUMID AIR IS AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50 AND 60S.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE
SPRINGFIELD AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
THE WEST PLAINS AREA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SPRINGFIELD/JOPLIN AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE AS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS IN.

THERE IS ALSO A TORNADO WATCH FOR MOST  OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS UNTIL 6PM. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAS SATURATED THE GROUND ACROSS
THE REGION AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. REMEMBER...DO NOT CROSS ROADS THAT ARE COVERED
WITH WATER...ESPECIALLY LOW WATER BRIDGES

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHUMWAY