Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

88D SHOWING NON-SEVERE CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FROM PARSON KANSAS TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS.  HEAVY RAIN WAS COMMON ALONG
THIS LINE.  SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE INDICATE A LOW IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE MO-AR BORDER AND A TROF OVER
EASTERN OK.  85H SHOWS A LOW IN EASTERN OK WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SUPPLY
FROM THE GULF.  70H AND 50H SHOWS DEEP TROF TO OUR WEST.  30H SHOWS A
75KT JET EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL AR.

ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO I HAVE NO PREFERENCE.  ALL INDICATE THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO KY BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE 50H TROF MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE 30H JET
THAT WILL PROVIDE THE PUSH.  ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW.  SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT TROF BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN.  RIDGING SHOULD PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
STRONG VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY 18/00Z.
STRONGEST PVA IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...BUT I THINK THE RW
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET AND THE 70H TROF
PASSES.

VIH/AIZ...THIS EVENING - OCNL RW/TSTMS. LIGHT WIND.
          OVRNGT - PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW AROUND 60. LIGHT WIND.
SGF...THIS EVENING - OCNL RW/TSTMS.  LIGHT WIND
      OVRNGT - PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.  LIGHT WIND.
JLN...THIS EVENING - OCNL RW/TSTMS.  LIGHT WIND
      OVRNGT - PARTLY CLOUDY.   LOW MID 60S.  WND VRBL 5-10 MPH.
UNO...THIS EVENING - OCNL RW/TSTMS...LIGHT WIND
      OVRNGT...MOSTLY CLOUDY...30% CHANCE OF RW/TSTMS. LOW MIDDLE 6<0S.
               LIGHT WIND.

CCF...
SGF BB 062/083 064/088 065 218-0
JLN BB 064/085 065/089 066 218-0

HEVRDEYS/GAEDE

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-172350-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER
ARKANSAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
ANOTHER LOW WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A TROUGH SITUATED
FROM JOPLIN TO JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD TO ROLLA.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THIS TROUGH...PRIMARILY
ALONG I-44.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW CELLS WERE PRODUCING PEA-SIZE HAIL.

WITH THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.  THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF I-44.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE LIKELY. RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE RAINS MAY CAUSE WATER TO COVER
SOME ROADWAYS AND LOW-WATER CROSSINGS.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

SPOTTERS MAY POSSIBLY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.