Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 1997

SHORT-TERM...DEFINITELY TRICKIEST PART OF FCST WILL BE EARLY PART OF
TNGT.  ADAP SHOWS CAP HOLDING OVER BULK OF MRX CWA...BUT STARTING TO
ERODE OVER NRN MS AND AL.  NO ADDITIONAL DVLPMT OF SFC LOW ON FNTL
BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE AND STILL NOTED NEAR SRN MIDDLE
TN.  MY 12-17Z SFC ANLYS HAVE DEPICTED A TROF ERN KY SW TO NEAR MEM
AND KHPX 88D HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME CONVECTION IN AN E-W BAND ACRS
CNTRL KY MOVG EWD.  GIVEN RECENT SWOMCD...I AM NOT SURE IF WE CAN DROP
POPS FOR WRN AND SRN PARTS OF MY CWA JUST YET.  ELSW...ADAP HAS JUST
SHOWN WEAK LO LVL CONVERGENCE EXTRM NE TN TO KY-VA LINE...WHICH HAS
NOT BEEN STG ENUFF TO OVERCOME STILL WARM TEMPS (CAP) ALOFT.  CRW
PRBLY ON RIGHT TRACK IN A DRY FCST FOR MY SWRN VA COUNTIES TNGT...BUT
WOULD MONITOR EWD PROGRESS OF KY STORMS.  INTERESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH
NEITHER NGM OR ETA PICK UP ON FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT BOTH SHOW
WIDE SWATH OF PCPN ACROSS MY CWA TNGT.

LATER PERIODS...GRIDDED DATA ARRIVED AS PARTIAL FILES AND NOT VIEWABLE
THIS AFTN...SO RELYING ON AFOS AND GARP DATA.  FCST APPRS EASY FOR SAT
THRU SUN...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS LONGWAVE TROFG
DVLPS OVER MUCH OF ERN U.S. AND RIDGE IS SHUNTED EWD.  HARD TO FIND
ANY FOCUS OR TRIGGER FOR AFTN-EVNG CONVECTION...AND WITH DRYING INDCD
IN LOW LVLS...WOULD KEEP DRY FCSTS GOING.  AGREE WITH CRW THAT PATCHY
DENSE FOG PSBL ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH AS TRI FOR SAT NGT.

TEMPWISE...MINS ACCEPTABLE AND QUITE PLEASANT IF MID-UPR 50S PAN OUT
FOR SAT NGT ON PLATEAU AND FAR NE TN/SWRN VA.  GUT FEELING IS THAT
UPR 70S MAY BE TOO COOL FOR TRI SAT GIVEN LOTS OF JULY SUNSHINE.  10

TG