Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 1997

SHORT-TERM...DEFINITELY TRICKIEST PART OF FCST WILL BE EARLY PART OF
TNGT.  ADAP SHOWS CAP HOLDING OVER BULK OF MRX CWA...BUT STARTING TO
ERODE OVER NRN MS AND AL.  NO ADDITIONAL DVLPMT OF SFC LOW ON FNTL
BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE AND STILL NOTED NEAR SRN MIDDLE
TN.  MY 12-17Z SFC ANLYS HAVE DEPICTED A TROF ERN KY SW TO NEAR MEM
AND KHPX 88D HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME CONVECTION IN AN E-W BAND ACRS
CNTRL KY MOVG EWD.  GIVEN RECENT SWOMCD...I AM NOT SURE IF WE CAN DROP
POPS FOR WRN AND SRN PARTS OF MY CWA JUST YET.  ELSW...ADAP HAS JUST
SHOWN WEAK LO LVL CONVERGENCE EXTRM NE TN TO KY-VA LINE...WHICH HAS
NOT BEEN STG ENUFF TO OVERCOME STILL WARM TEMPS (CAP) ALOFT.  CRW
PRBLY ON RIGHT TRACK IN A DRY FCST FOR MY SWRN VA COUNTIES TNGT...BUT
WOULD MONITOR EWD PROGRESS OF KY STORMS.  INTERESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH
NEITHER NGM OR ETA PICK UP ON FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT BOTH SHOW
WIDE SWATH OF PCPN ACROSS MY CWA TNGT.

LATER PERIODS...GRIDDED DATA ARRIVED AS PARTIAL FILES AND NOT VIEWABLE
THIS AFTN...SO RELYING ON AFOS AND GARP DATA.  FCST APPRS EASY FOR SAT
THRU SUN...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS LONGWAVE TROFG
DVLPS OVER MUCH OF ERN U.S. AND RIDGE IS SHUNTED EWD.  HARD TO FIND
ANY FOCUS OR TRIGGER FOR AFTN-EVNG CONVECTION...AND WITH DRYING INDCD
IN LOW LVLS...WOULD KEEP DRY FCSTS GOING.  AGREE WITH CRW THAT PATCHY
DENSE FOG PSBL ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH AS TRI FOR SAT NGT.

TEMPWISE...MINS ACCEPTABLE AND QUITE PLEASANT IF MID-UPR 50S PAN OUT
FOR SAT NGT ON PLATEAU AND FAR NE TN/SWRN VA.  GUT FEELING IS THAT
UPR 70S MAY BE TOO COOL FOR TRI SAT GIVEN LOTS OF JULY SUNSHINE.  10

TG

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>014-034>041-066>074-083>087-099>102-042130-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
EASTWARD INTO THE CHATTANOOGA AREA.

JUST BEFORE NOON...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS TENNESSEE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MAKE CONDITIONS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN TOO WARM FOR LARGE HAIL
...BUT HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS.  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND
SPOTTER PERSONNEL GENERALLY WEST OF A COOKEVILLE TO DAYTON...ATHENS
AND CLEVELAND LINE SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TG

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>014-034>041-066>074-083>087-099>102-042130-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
EASTWARD INTO THE CHATTANOOGA AREA.

JUST BEFORE NOON...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS TENNESSEE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MAKE CONDITIONS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN TOO WARM FOR LARGE HAIL
...BUT HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS.  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND
SPOTTER PERSONNEL GENERALLY WEST OF A COOKEVILLE TO DAYTON...ATHENS
AND CLEVELAND LINE SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVIC0E.

TG