Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
235 AM CST FRI JAN 23 1997

06Z SFC MAP INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS SFC LOW PROGGED BY MODELS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BE LOCATED VCNTY OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS
EVENING (00Z SAT). AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST
WILL MOVE NORTH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FCST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING (APPROX 06Z). LONGWAVE TROF OVER CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THIS FCST PERIOD. THIS TROF
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE EAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF EARLY PART OF FCST PERIOD. ETA
INDICATES SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS FCST AREA 12Z-18Z TIME PERIOD
TODAY...HOWEVER TSTM ACTIVITY ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BEST
UVV'S OVER FCST AREA DURING DAY TODAY WITH MAX LIFT AROUND 18Z. FCST
AREA PROGGED TO BE UNDER RR QUAD OF LOW/MID LEVEL 40+ KNOT JET TODAY.
JET WILL ENHANCE UVV'S AND RESULT IN GROUND RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
AROUND 250. SFC BASED CAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG AND LI'S OF -2 TO -4
INDICATED FOR AREA TODAY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP AS
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY ACROSS FCST AREA BEGINNING EARLY THIS
MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED...SPC MODERATE RISK FOR FCST AREA LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT AND COOL THINGS OFF BEGINNING 12Z SATURDAY.

MOB 71/52/62/39 6300         PNS 70/54/65/40 6300
DTS 68/55/65/42 6300         EVR 69/48/60/30 7400 12

ALZ051>64-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-250600-

AREAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CST FRI JAN 24 1997

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA WILL INCREASE BRINGING WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
REGION.

THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND ENHANCE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY. DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INITIALLY BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LATE MORNING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY LATE THIS
EVENING...ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ALZ051>64-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-250600-

AREAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CST FRI JAN 24 1997

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA WILL INCREASE BRINGING WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
REGION.

THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND ENHANCE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY. DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INITIALLY BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LATE MORNING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY LATE THIS
EVENING...ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.