Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 AM EDT MON JUN 2 1997

SHORT-TERM CONCERN IS AREAS OF STATUS...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT E/NE
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. ETA HAS BACKED OFF EXTREME DRY PUNCH OVER
CWA FOR TODAY AND NOW ACTUALLY ADVECTS AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE NE
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA TODAY. THIS DEPICTION SEEMS MORE
REALISTIC...HOWEVER DRY LAYER WILL OVERLAY MOISTURE ABOVE 600
MB...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. GIVEN EXPECTED MOISTURE
PROFILE...AND CONTINUATION OF 20-30 WESTERLY STEERING
COMPONENT...THINK 40 POPS INLAND/NORTH AND 50/60 COAST/SOUTH WOULD BE
APPROPRIATE. DYNAMICS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE TODAY...HOWEVER MODELS TO
HINT AT PASSAGE OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND ALSO INDICATE 250 MB
DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY.

WITH LOWEST WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN
HALF OF AREA...GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE IN THESE AREAS...HOWEVER POPS WILL ALSO BE LOWEST. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO N/C
PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO FOCUS STRONGER
STORMS. WITH A 10-14 KT SYNOPTIC OFFSHORE COMPONENT...EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE (ECSB) DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
BUT AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...STORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST BREEZE
MAY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST EARLY ENOUGH TO
IMPEDE ECSB DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...NOT CERTAIN CONCERNING PROSPECTS
OF ECSB...BUT SHOULD THE BOUNDARY FORM AND MOVE ONSHORE...SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...
AGAIN. SO...STAY TUNED...SHOULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH DRIER VERTICAL PROFILES CWA-WIDE
TUESDAY...BUT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST...WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW...AND EXPECTED SEA BREEZES...SCATTERED POPS AGAIN
WARRANTED FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY C/S COASTAL
COUNTIES.

SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-021230-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
700 AM EDT MON JUN 2 1997

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TODAY. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY AND SHOULD LOWER THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NORTH OF A
LAKELAND TO CAPE CANAVERAL LINE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF A LAYER OF
DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF A SEA BREEZE FORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY MANY OF THE STORMS. MOVE
QUICKLY TO A SAFE LOCATION AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORM.

MARINE OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL....AND SQUALLY WEATHER.

SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-021230-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
700 AM EDT MON JUN 2 1997

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TODAY. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY AND SHOULD LOWER THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NORTH OF A
LAKELAND TO CAPE CANAVERAL LINE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF A LAYER OF
DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF A SEA BREEZE FORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY MANY OF THE STORMS. MOVE
QUICKLY TO A SAFE LOCATION AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORM.

MARINE OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH.P
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL....AND SQUALLY WEATHER.

SPRATT