Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EST SAT DEC 13 1997

VERY BUSY EARLY MORNING WILL ALL OF THE WX.

CURRENTLY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RUNNING NE/SW OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF FA MOVING NE AT 30. RAIN COVERS NEARLY ALL OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXCEPT DEEP SOUTH. SAT PIX SHOW CLUSTER OF
COLD CLOUD TOP MOVING OVER THE STATE WITH BACK EDGE OF COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS ENTERING W COAST.

SHORT TERM...EXPECT HEAVIEST RAIN WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS TO CONTINUE
MOVING NE. RAPID SCAN 88D OFF RADS INDICATING CIRCULATION NW OF LK
OKEECHOBEE...AND THIS ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX AND COLD CLOUD TOPS
MOVING OVER REGION. BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN NOW IN AREAS WHICH HAVE
RECIEVED VERY LITTLE RAIN (S MLB CWA)...SO EXPECT FLOOD THREAT
MARGINAL. ONCE THIS VORT MOVES OVER REGION...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL DECREASE IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
OVERCAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING OVER MOST OF FA.
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT VRB WSW INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WC
FLORIA...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY.

FOR TODAY...MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT BOTH SFC AND ALOFT. ALL THREE
MODELS DO FORM CUTOFF LOW AND ORIENT IT IN A MORE NEUTRAL TILT WITH
TIME...BUT ETA SLOWER WITH SYSTEM MOVING EAST. SFC LOW WILL FORM OFF
FLA COAST BY 48 HOURS...BUT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE MEANTIME IS
UNCERTAIN. AM CONFIDENT TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH RAIN MOST SECTIONS
BUT PINNING AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAIN DIFFICULT AS MESOSCALE FEATURES
NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS WILL ENHANCE LOCATION OF SIGNIF RAIN.
LIKEWISE WOULD KEEP UP FLOOD WATCH.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON S SXNS OF FA FOR HEAVY RAIN. ATTM DO NOT
EXPECT FFA OVER S SXNS AS THIS AREA HAS SEEN NO SIGNIF RAIN...AND
AREA WOULD HAVE TO RECIEVE SIGNIF AMOUNT BEFORE FLOOD THREAT BEGINS.

AS FOR SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG COAST...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES STARTING TOMMOROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXACT
POSITIONING OF SFC LOW WILL DETERMINE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.

ONE OTHER TIDBIT...MM5 MODEL IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. IT MIGHT GIVE HIGH
RESO DATA...BUT I HAVENT SEEN THIS MODEL DO A GOOD JOB IN A TIGHT WX
SITUATION YET.

ALSO...MLB HAS ALREADY BROKEN ITS PRECIP RECORD FOR THIS DATE...AND
THE DAY IS ONLY 3.25 HOURS OLD...

HODANISH