Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
319 PM CDT THU APR 24 1997

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN CWA INVOF E-W
BOUNDARY AND IN AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE (SEE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS).
FURTHER S INSTABILITY IS HIER WITH DRYLINE NR FST...HOWEVER CAP
IS STRONGEST IN SRN AREAS AND DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF A
LITTLE LONGER. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF INTO
THE NIGHT AS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY APPROACHING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. OTHER THAN SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT CURRENT PACKAGE SEEMS TO HAVE GENERAL HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION WITH LIKELY CAT SUFFICIENT. AFTER EARLIER COORD WITH LBB
DECIDED LEAVE MENTION OF NRN TIER OUT OF FFA...HOWEVER RECENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THIS IS THE FAVORED AREA AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE
LATER. LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE S. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE N IS
EXPECTED TO SAG S INTO THE PB BY TMRW AFTERNOON AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO BACK AROUND. THIS WILL AID IN MSTR TRANSPORT AS UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ATMOS WILL BECOME NEARLY
SATURATED BY TMRW. THIS COMBINED WITH PRESENCE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE
SUGGEST THREAT FOR HVY RN EXISTS. BEST LIFT MAY BE LATER IN THE DAY
AS UPPER LEVEL DVRG SPREADS INTO W TX. COORD WITH LBB AND WILL PLAY
TO THE COOLER AVN NUMBERS WITH PANHANDLE TEMPS IN THE U30S TO L40S
ATTM. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER TMRW...ELY SURFACE FLOW...AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE THE COOL TREND OF FAN GUIDANCE. COORD
WITH LBB AND SPC.

MAF 47/59 70/70
CNM 47/63 40/60
MRF 45/65 -/30
P07 53/64 30/40

MURDOCH/FRANCIS

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-250500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1144 AM CDT (1044 AM MDT) THU APR 24 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM CAPROCK NEW MEXICO...TO WINK TEXAS...TO JUST
WEST OF SANDERSON. SCATTERED DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONVERGING ALONG THE DRYLINE PROVIDING LIFT. A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND A PASSING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. RESIDENTS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH
ON THE WEATHER AND PREPARE THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS WEATHER IN
THE OUTLOOK AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

MURDOCH/FRANCIS