Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
215 PM CDT WED MAY 14 1997

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF
KEPZ... TO NEAR KMAF AND EASTWARD TO NEAR KABI.  APPEARS LOW
PRESSURE STILL OVER EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS WITH TROUGH EAST OF KMAF
ATTM.  DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE TROUGH REMAIN
BETWEEN 65 AND 70.  LATEST ADAP DATA SHOW MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER
CONCHO VALLEY WITH LI/S AROUND MINUS 10.  HOWEVER...AIRMASS STRONGLY
CAPPED IN THIS AREA.  KMAF 88D VWP SHOWING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE SURFACE.  ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS ATTM AS SEEN
ON LATEST REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT.

UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TONIGHT BUT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
WARRANTED AT LEAST THROUGH EVENING OVER PERMIAN BASIN.  MAY SEE A
FEW CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.  TOMORROW AFTERNOON SEEMS
THE MUCH BETTER DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE... AS SHRTWV DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BETWEEN 15/18Z AND 16/00Z.  THIS COUPLED
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY... DAYTIME HEATING AND NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS AT H5 SPELL TROUBLE.  THEREFORE...WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MAINLY
OVER PERMIAN BASIN.

COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
LOOKING AT BOUNDARY RH/S... PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS KINK AND KHOB.

WILL STICK TO WARMER MOS GUIDANCE THIS GO AROUND AS FRONT NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT.

THANKS TO LBB FOR INPUT.

MAF  61/85 23
CNM  57/90 11
MRF  48/84 -1
P07  64/87 11

EARLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1209 AM CDT (1109 PM MDT) THU MAY 15 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

453 PM     1 S MIDLAND               TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   MIDLAND

456 PM     4 S MIDLAND               TX   2.00 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   MIDLAND

458 PM     4 SSE MIDLAND             TX   2.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   MIDLAND

506 PM     2 E MIDLAND               TX   2.50 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   MIDLAND

521 PM     6 S MIDLAND               TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   MIDLAND

528 PM     4 SE MIDLAND              TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   MIDLAND                        REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF
                                          FM 715 AND 146 E.

651 PM     5 E PATRICIA              TX   2.50 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   DAWSON

728 PM     FLUVANNA                  TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   SCURRY

840 PM     13 E GAIL                 TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   BORDEN

856 PM     15 SW SNYDER              TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   SCURRY                         REPORTED IN KNAPP
                                          COMMUNITY.

922 PM     STANTON                   TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   MARTIN

1006 PM    LUTHER                    TX   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/14/97   HOWARD