Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
215 PM CDT WED MAY 14 1997

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF
KEPZ... TO NEAR KMAF AND EASTWARD TO NEAR KABI.  APPEARS LOW
PRESSURE STILL OVER EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS WITH TROUGH EAST OF KMAF
ATTM.  DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE TROUGH REMAIN
BETWEEN 65 AND 70.  LATEST ADAP DATA SHOW MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER
CONCHO VALLEY WITH LI/S AROUND MINUS 10.  HOWEVER...AIRMASS STRONGLY
CAPPED IN THIS AREA.  KMAF 88D VWP SHOWING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE SURFACE.  ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS ATTM AS SEEN
ON LATEST REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT.

UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TONIGHT BUT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
WARRANTED AT LEAST THROUGH EVENING OVER PERMIAN BASIN.  MAY SEE A
FEW CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.  TOMORROW AFTERNOON SEEMS
THE MUCH BETTER DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE... AS SHRTWV DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BETWEEN 15/18Z AND 16/00Z.  THIS COUPLED
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY... DAYTIME HEATING AND NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS AT H5 SPELL TROUBLE.  THEREFORE...WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MAINLY
OVER PERMIAN BASIN.

COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
LOOKING AT BOUNDARY RH/S... PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS KINK AND KHOB.

WILL STICK TO WARMER MOS GUIDANCE THIS GO AROUND AS FRONT NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT.

THANKS TO LBB FOR INPUT.

MAF  61/85 23
CNM  57/90 11
MRF  48/84 -1
P07  64/87 11

EARLE