Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 1997

CONTINUED RAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TO MAKE FORECAST CHALLENGE
POTENTIAL FLOODING AND THEN POPS THROUGH 30 HOURS. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EAST OF ANW TO LBF TO NEAR IML...THEN
TO LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO. PRESENTLY LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST WITH KLNX 88D SHOWING RETURNS WEAKENING. SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWING AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED GOOD THETA-E MOISTURE NORTH. RWD
PROFILER HAS SOUTH WINDS AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS IN LOWEST GATES...WITH MRR
PROFILER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS REALIGNING
FROM OVER GRANT EAST TO BRADY.

ISSUED FFW FOR PERKINS (FFG 3.1 INCHES)...LINCOLN (FFG 2.5 INCHES) AND
CHASE (FFG 1.9 INCHES) COUNTIES WITH 3.9 INCHES OF RAINFALL SHOWN ON THP
GRAPHIC OVER PERKINS COUNTY. SLOWING OF STORMS WILL EXCEED ALL GUIDANCES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL WEAKENING AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SATELLITE IR IMAGERY SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
MCS TOPS WARMING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF FORECAST AREA.

MODELS SIMILIAR THROUGH PERIOD WITH TROUGH RESIDING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EVENING. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL
KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN TO LIMIT HEATING WITH AVN-BASED
GUIDANCE PREFERRED SOUTHWEST WITH CLOSER TO FWC NORTHWEST.

500 MB FLOW OVER NEBRASKA BY 16/12Z WOULD SUGGEST FRONT TO SLOW AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AT LEAST. IN THE LONG TERM...MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY LOOKS QUESTIONABLE AS
UPPER 500 MB LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BUT NOT GIVEN MUCH
CONSIDERATION AT THIS POINT.

LBF EB 080/053 078/051 432     ONL EB 080/H055 080/052 430
IML TB 080/055 080/052 542     BBW EB 080/055 078/055 432
VTN EB 079/051 083/053 320

WOOD

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-161200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING NEBRASKA COUNTIES...

ARTHUR     BLAINE     BOYD       BROWN      CHASE      CHERRY
CUSTER     DEUEL      FRONTIER   GARDEN     GARFIELD   GRANT
HAYES      HOLT       HOOKER     KEITH      KEYA PAHA  LINCOLN
LOGAN      LOUP       MCPHERSON  PERKINS    ROCK       SHERIDAN
THOMAS     WHEELER

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO AINSWORTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT CAUSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO
THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY
MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FS

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-161200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING NEBRASKA COUNTIES...

ARTHUR     BLAINE     BOYD       BROWN      CHASE      CHERRY
CUSTER     DEUEL      FRONTIER   GARDEN     GARFIELD   GRANT
HAYES      HOLT       HOOKER     KEITH      KEYA PAHA  LINCOLN
LOGAN      LOUP       MCPHERSON  PERKINS    ROCK       SHERIDAN
THOMAS     WHEELER

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO AINSWORTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE.  AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT CAUSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO
THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY
MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN$TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FS