Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 AM EST SUN NOV 2 1997

ZFP: TRENDS IN ZONES APPEAR RIGHT ON TARGET. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE NECESSARY IN ENDING RNFL AND CLEARING THE SKIES. BELIEVE
MOST OF THE CLEARING WILL BE THIS AFTN AND ERN NC CAN BE WORDED MOSTLY
CLR TONIGHT. CONTINUE LIKELY MORNING POPS MOST AREAS AS VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS SLINGSLOT THRU THE FA. SW WNDS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO
15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY ON THE BANKS TDA AND 10 TO 20 MPH ELSEWHERE.
FCST TEMPS MON IN THE MID 60S ON TRACK...BUT MAY SEE SCT MID LVL CLDS
(MOSTLY SUNNY) AS YET ANOTHER VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE BIG E
COAST TROF.

CWF: CURRENT COASTAL FCST ALSO HAS TRENDS IN HAND THIS MORNING. LLJ
INCREASING AND SHOULD SEE A MARKED INCREASE IN SW WNDS FM 09Z-12Z.
SCA WILL REMAIN UP ON COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING. SEAS
ALREADY IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE AT THE TOWERS AND MAY BUMP SEAS UP A BIT
TDA S OF HATTERAS. ONLY CHANGE TO 2ND-3RD PD FCST MAY BE TO INCREASE
SW WNDS AGAIN TO 15-20 KT MON AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR 30-35 KT LLJ ALG
THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU CAROLINAS.

DISC: GETTING DISCUSSION OUT EARLY TO BABYSIT RADAR FOR WHAT COULD BE
A BUSY MORNING. ADAP SHOWS A WEAK RISE/FALL COUPLET IN S CAROLINA THAT
IS TIPPING ITS HAT THAT DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING. TONIGHTS
00Z SOUNDING HAS A LOT OF DRY AIR THAT WAS MISSING LAST NIGHT. ATMOS
IS NOT VRY UNSTBL ACR@OSS COASTAL NC ATTM...BUT ANY BACKING OF LOW LVL
WND FIELDS SHOULD ASSIST SOME INSTABILITY TO ADVCT FROM THE ATLC.

.MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.

RVT