Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
830 PM EST SAT NOV 1 1997

RDU: SUGGEST BUMPING UP POPS TO 50% AND MENTIONING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFT MIDNIGHT.

CWF: ANOTHER STRONG LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS ESTRN NC TONIGHT
(STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHTS).  AGREE WITH ILM ABOUT SHORT LIVED GALE
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.  SINCE ETA WINDS HAVE BEEN ON STEROIDS
LATELY AND IF EVENT OCCURS IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED I WILL NOT RAISE
GALE BUT CONTINUE WITH STRONG SCA. WE HAVE ISSUED A MWS TO COVER
STRONG WINDS AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ON BOGUE BANKS SUN AM WITH
STRONG SW FLOW AND MODERATELY HIGH TIDES.

DISC: HATS OFF TO THE NGM WHICH CORRECTLY FCST INTENSITY/STRENGTH OF
COASTAL LOW NOW OVER ESTRN PA.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE ACTIVE PTRN WHILE WE AWAIT ANOTHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER TROF THIS EVENING.  CLOUDS AND PCPN
ASSCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY ENTERING WSTRN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A
SFC COLD FRONT.  EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS
ESTRN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THUS POPS COULD BE INCREASED IN 1ST
PERIOD.  PCPN APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN MODELS SO MOST OF MY
CWA EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND EXTREME NE WILL BE DRY AFT 13Z.

POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SVR CONVECTION AS STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG WIND FIELDS CROSS THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER VORT.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE LOW LVL INSTAB AS
WSTRLY FLOW ACROSS NC HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO 50S.  THINK
SHORTWAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BACK FLOW AND PUNCH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOW 60S ACROSS MY CWA.  EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVR THE CNTRL CAROLINAS WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ESTRN SECTIONS AFT 06Z WHEN DIFLUENCE ASSCTD WITH
NOSE OF UPPER JET EFFECTS THE AREA.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL (DUE TO LOW WBZ HGHTS) MAIN SVR THREATS.

.MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND SNDS.

JME