Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT (329 PM CDT) TUE JUN 24 1997

...FCST PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TNGT...

EARLIER ANTICIPATED CONVECTION NOT IN SWING THIS AFTN...AS COOLER
AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE ALL DAY IN THE WEST...AND
LOW CLOUDS REMAINED IN THE EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. THUS...
INSTABILITY PROBABLY DID NOT MAX OUT AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ADAPS
AND RECENT ANALYSES SHOW COVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EAST
OF MCCOOK TO HILL CITY TO GARDEN CITY. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU
THROUGH THIS REGION...AND RADAR JUST NOW SHOWING RETURNS JUST NW
HILL CITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TO ENHANCE WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE...APPARANTLY NOW TRIGGERING STORMS IN SE CO. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO ADVECT IN FROM ERN CO IN OUR WRN ZONES. WILL INCLUDE PSBLE SRV
METION IN ERN/SRN ZONES WITH PSBL HVY RAIN.

ETA MODEL APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE FEATURES
TODAY...PLACING A LOW OVER FAR SE CO/SW KS. THIS VERIFIED WELL WITH
THE 18Z ANALYSIS. THE NGM/AND MODELS HAD THE LOW CENTER FARTHER NE.
WILL LEAN ON THE ETA FOR SURFACE FLOW AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP IN UPSLOP FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG IN MOST OF THE DAY TMRW...AM GOING TO STICK
CLOSE TO FWC COOL HIGHS AROUND 75.

PRECIP TNGT COULD BE HEAVY IN PLACES MAINLY ALONG CWA/S SERN
FRINGE...REF 92E...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN THAT VCNTY.

GLD  059/077/057/089 7-2  HLC  061/079/058/090 822
CBK  059/077/057/090 7-2  MCK  057/077/057/090 6-2
TRB  061/079/058/090 7-2  ITR  059/078/057/088 7-2

STAVISH

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-250600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
942 AM MDT (1042 AM CDT) TUE JUN 24 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SYNOPSIS:
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION
TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY ALREADY
IN PLACE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON....AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA
TO COLBY...RUSSELL SPRINGS...AND TRIBUNE KANSAS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES.

STAVISH

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-250330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT (427 PM CDT) TUE JUN 24 1997

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT)...

THE NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE...

CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...NORTON...SHERMAN...THOMAS...GRAHAM...
SHERIDAN...WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...WICHITA AND GREELEY

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. THE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

DURING A TORNADO WATCH...BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR TO A
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED OR IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO...CABLE TELEVISION...OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION.

KPL