Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED TO ADDRESS PCPN STATE TON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT (343 AM CDT) SUN OCT 12 1997

...MANY FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SATL...AND SFC ANAL...WL PREFER THE ETA
OVERALL...BUT WL SPEED IT UP JUST A TAD. GOOD DISCUSSIONS IN PMDSPD
AND QPF...GOT A LOT OF GOOD INFO FROM IT...BIG THANK YOU.

TO ALL WHO GET GLD OPU...MAY AJDUST PCPN FCST IN WRN ZONES SLIGHTLY
BASED ON LAST MINUTE RADAR. CURRENTLY HAVE A TOR WATCH FOR MOST
OF CWA...AND GROUPING WL LIKELY CHANGE BASED ON WHERE WATCH IS
STILL UP. LATEST SFC ANAL SHOWS FRONT MOVING INTO WRN PTN OF CWA
ATTM. SATL AND GLD WSR-88D SHOWG PCPN COVER MOST OF CWA WITH ECHOES
TRANING IN FROM THE SW.

SATL AND PLAN PROFILER WNDS/VORTICITY SHOW ENERGY STILL A FAIR
DISTANCE TO SW AND W WITH MAIN UPR LOW NEAR FOUR CORNERS AREA. MORE
ENERGY COMG DOWN BACKSIDE OF TROF AS SEEN ON SATL AS WELL. WILL ALSO
GET STRONG CAA ALOFT WITH HIGH LAPSE RATES SEEN IN THE 700 TO 500 MB
LAYER. ALSO 700 TO 500 LOW TRACK APPEARS TO BE JUST TO S AND E OF
GLD.

BASED ON ALL THAT...WL GO VERY CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT ALL AREAS WITH
SOME DECREASE SEEN IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOK TO GET SOME QG
FORCG/FRONTOGENETIC FORCG TONIGHT BUT WITH LESS MSTR THAN DURG THE
DAY. WL ALSO HAVE NOSE OF JET ARND EARLY AS WELL...SO WL KEEP SMALL
POPS FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. HWVR...BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES TO CHANGE THINGS OVR...THE MSTR HAS LEFT...SO WL ONLY HAVE
RAIN IN THE PACKAGE.

WL BE GOING WITH HIGH WND WARNING FOR TDY WITH SUCH STRONG CAA BEHIND
FRONT AND VERY STRONG WNDS AHEAD OF FRONT. MODELS OFTEN UNDERO CAA
AND NW WNDS IN THIS SCENARION. WL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT TON
WITH WNDS CONTINUING BUT WL LEAVE THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. WL BE WNDY
AGAIN ON MON. BLV NGM MOS IS TOO WARM ESP WEST TODAY. WL GO BLO
THERE AND CLOSE TO IN THE EAST...AND AM NOT SURE WHAT SIDE OF MOS WL
GO ON...AND WL LATE FOR LATEST OBS.

WINDS AND CLDS TO KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT FROM BOTTOMING OUT. WL NOT PUT
OUT ANYTHING FOR THE COLD TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT WL HAVE DAY SHIFT TAKE
A LOOK AT IT. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING MORE...I WILL PROBABLY GO CLOSE
TO MOS GUIDANCE IN WEST TONIGHT AND BLO IN THE EAST. THINK NGM MAY
BE WARMING UP THINGS A LTL MUCH ON MON. LOOK TO HAVE CLDS ARND PLUS
MOIST...PSBLY FROST COVERED GRND. SO WL TEND TO GO BLO MOS FOR MAXES
ON MON...ESPECIALLY ERN AREAS.

.GLD...HIGH WND WARNING TODAY FOR ALL ZONES.

BULLER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-120735-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
933 PM MDT (1033 PM CDT) SAT OCT 11 1997

...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT...
...A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SUNDAY...

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT
AUTUMN STORM SYSTEM. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH.

PEAK WIND GUSTS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDE

  51 MPH AT GOODLAND
  49 MPH AT BURLINGTON
  54 MPH AT MCCOOK
  43 MPH AT HILL CITY

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

THE STRONG WINDS CAN CAUSE POWER DISRUPTIONS...HAZARDS TO TRAILERS
AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...AND BLOWING DUST THAT CAN REDUCE
VISIBILITY SUDDENLY TO NEAR ZERO IN AREAS WHERE PLOWED FIELDS
EXIST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO...CABLE TELEVISION...OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING
THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

TURNER

COZ090>092-120545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
942 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 1997

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT...

AT 940 PM MDT...CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN COLORADO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT FOR YUMA...KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF EASTERN COLORADO.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

TURNER

COZ090>092-120545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
942 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 1997

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT...

AT 940 PM MDT...CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN COLORADO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT FOR YUMA...KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF EASTERN COLORADO.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

TURNER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121105-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1101 PM MDT (1201 AM CDT) SAT OCT 11 1997

...TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 5 AM MDT (6
AM CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 5 AM MDT (6 AM CDT).

COLORADO COUNTIES COVERED IN THE WATCH...CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON...AND
SOUTHERN YUMA.

NEBRASKA COUNTIES IN THE WATCH...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW

COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS THAT ARE IN THE WATCH...
CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...WALLACE
...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY...AND WICHITA.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING.  DO NOT STAND BY WINDOWS.  DO NOT USE TELEPHONES OR
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.  MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE INTO LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

BULLER

COZ090>092-121015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
308 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 1997

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN COLORADO HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 305 AM MDT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION HAS STABILIZED.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER YUMA...KIT
CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EASTERN COLORADO...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT ANY WILL BECOME SEVERE.

THEREFORE THE TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN COLORADO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ISSUED CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
EVENT. HOWEVER...YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND LATER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

GONSOWSKI

COZ090>092-121015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
308 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 1997

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN COLORADO HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 305 AM MDT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION HAS STABILIZED.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER YUMA...KIT
CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EASTERN COLORADO...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT ANY WILL BECOME SEVERE.

THEREFORE THE TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN COLORADO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ISSUED CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
EVENT. HOWEVER...YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND LATER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

GONSOWSKI