Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT (314 PM CDT) SAT OCT 11 1997

...MAIN CHALLENGE THIS GO ROUND WILL BE POPS FIRST THREE PDS AND
TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND RESULTING TEMPS SUN AND SUN NIGHT...

...SHORT TERM...
ALL MODELS SIMILAR ON H7-H5 INITIALIZATION OF AMPLIFIED L/W TROF
OVER NV/UT AT 12Z. HOWEVER...ETAS SLOWER TIMING OF TROF OPENING UP
AND PULLING INTO CWA PREFFERRED WITH 140-160 KT JET MAX MAKING ITS
WAY DOWN THE UPSTREAM SIDE. THUS PREFER SLOWER PROGRESSION EAST AND
BOUT 3-6 HR DELAY IN S/W ARRIVAL AROUND BASE OF L/W SYSTEM. MM5 SEEMS
TO GRASP SFC-BNDY FEATURES A BIT BETTER THAN ETA...SO WILL FOLLOW
FOR SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS BOUT 3
HRS SLOWER THAN AVN/NGM.

MDT RISK OUT TONIGHT FROM SPC. SLY BNDY LAYER WINDS UP TO 50KTS
EXPECTED FEED ABUNDANT LOW LVL MSTR FROM OK/TX INTO AREA TNGT AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL WARRANT NPW INTO SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO PREV FCSTR
THOUGHTS ON POPS AS STG JET MAX SWINGS ROUND BASE OF TROUGH TONIGHT
AND EJECTS INITIAL S/W WITH INTO SERN CO OVERNIGHT. ONLY WORRY IS
WHEN CAP WILL BREAK. ONCE IT DOES...FEEL TSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO FIRE
ALONG LEE TROF. ONCE IT DOES SO...DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP PCPN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND MOVE OVER INTO KS/NEB BY MIDNIGHT. PWS OF 1.25
TO 1.5 LOCATED OVER KS/NEB...SO WILL ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
ZNS. SINCE I FEEL FWC IS TOO FAST WITH FRONT...WILL HIKE LOWS AT
LEAST A CAT OR SO MOST AREAS WITH STRONG LOW LVL WAA OCCURRING AHEAD
OF WESTERN SYSTEM.

...LONG TERM...
L/W H5 TROF OPENS UP ONCE 150-160 KT JET MAX COMES THRU. THIS WILL
HELP SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER ERN CO TO EJECT OUT INTO N-CNTRL KS
BY 00Z SUN. FEEL FROPA TO OCCUR NW OF ITR-MCK LINE 15-18Z. CENTRAL
AREAS AROUND 18Z...THEN THE TRB AND HLC BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. SFC LOW
TO REALLY DEEPEN AS STRONG S/W EJECTS OUT INTO HIGH PLAINS. FEEL THE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA...THUS HIGH WIND WATCH
SUGGESTED FOR SUN. HIGH POPS WARRANTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SE
AREAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND WITH PLENTY PVA AROUND. WILL GO MORN
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN A CAT HIGHER THAN MOS WITH MM5 SLOWER TIMING OF
FROPA.

BY SUN NGT...STG CAA FROM SFC-H7 TO OCCUR BY 06Z. RR QUAD OF JET
WILL BE CLOSE BY WITH COLD AIR AT H5 SHEARING OUT OVER THE AREA AND
THEN NE OF AREA BY 12Z MON MORN. SO SCATTERED...PRE-FRONTAL PCPN
NOT OUTTA THE QUESTION. 543 TCKNS PROGGED BY 12Z ALSO. H85-H7
CAA INDICATES THAT AREAS NW OF A GLD-MCK LINE MAY SEE SHOWERY TYPE
PCPN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 06Z MON. WILL PUT IN ZONES. KEPT LOWS
BETWEEN FAN AND FWC NUMBERS WITH UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING BY MON MORN.
IF FREEZE OCCURS...BELIEVE IT MAY BE MORE THE NW HALF MON MORN...
WINDS STAY UP EARLY MON BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z TUES. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HIGHS HERE WITH SUNSHINE HELPING TEMPS TO PUSH FWC
VALUES.

IN EXTENDED...STG NWLY FLO ALOFT BEHIND DEPARTING L/W TROF AND SFC
RIDGE BUILDING IN...FEEL IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL. MORE LIKE FALL.

.GLD...WIND ADVSRY TNGT...HIGH WIND WATCH SUNDAY ALL ZNS.

MARTELLO

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-120735-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
933 PM MDT (1033 PM CDT) SAT OCT 11 1997

...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT...
...A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SUNDAY...

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT
AUTUMN STORM SYSTEM. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH.

PEAK WIND GUSTS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDE

  51 MPH AT GOODLAND
  49 MPH AT BURLINGTON
  54 MPH AT MCCOOK
  43 MPH AT HILL CITY

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

THE STRONG WINDS CAN CAUSE POWER DISRUPTIONS...HAZARDS TO TRAILERS
AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...AND BLOWING DUST THAT CAN REDUCE
VISIBILITY SUDDENLY TO NEAR ZERO IN AREAS WHERE PLOWED FIELDS
EXIST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO...CABLE TELEVISION...OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING
THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

TURNER

COZ090>092-120545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
942 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 1997

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT...

AT 940 PM MDT...CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN COLORADO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT FOR YUMA...KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF EASTERN COLORADO.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

TURNER

COZ090>092-120545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
942 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 1997

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT...

AT 940 PM MDT...CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN COLORADO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT FOR YUMA...KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF EASTERN COLORADO.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

TURNER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121105-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1101 PM MDT (1201 AM CDT) SAT OCT 11 1997

...TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 5 AM MDT (6
AM CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 5 AM MDT (6 AM CDT).

COLORADO COUNTIES COVERED IN THE WATCH...CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON...AND
SOUTHERN YUMA.

NEBRASKA COUNTIES IN THE WATCH...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW

COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS THAT ARE IN THE WATCH...
CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...WALLACE
...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY...AND WICHITA.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING.  DO NOT STAND BY WINDOWS.  DO NOT USE TELEPHONES OR
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.  MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE INTO LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

BULLER