Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
230 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 1997

PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF PCPN...AND TIMING OF PCPN.
ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS PROJECTED...WITH LATEST ADAP
GRAPHICS INDICATING A CAP STRENGTH OF ONLY 1 DEGREE CELSIUS
ACROSS MUCH OF NW AND WC MN. ADAP ALSO SHOWING A SURFACE MIXING
RATIO OF 17 G/KG AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE ND
TO SW SD. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX HAS INCREASED TO -11.

SPECIAL 18Z INL SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A CAP OF ABOUT 3C...BUT
ETA GRIDDED DATA INDICATES THAT CAP WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DURING
THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START
TAKING ON MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONCE THE CAP BREAKS...TSRA SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP. THINK THE
MENTION OF SEVERE IS WARRANTED IN OUR NW CWA ZONES...CLOSER TO
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND GREATEST INSTABILITY DURING THE EVVENING.
AGREE WITH MAINLY LATE WORDING IN NW WI AND MUCH OF NE MN.

DAP

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