Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
225 PM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

PLENTY OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS VERSION.

MOST OF TSRA MOVING INTO OK.  TSRA MOVED ALONG 850 FRONT AS S/W MOVED
THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF DDC. SO
QUESION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TSRA CHANCES FOR REMAINDER OF CWA.

INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH DDC-NW.  APPEARS THAT TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DDC.  ADAP PRODUCTS
SHOW BEST MOISTURE CONVERGANCE ALONG CO-KS BORDER ATTM.  BEST CHANCES
FOR TRSA OVER FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AREAS FOR EARLY TONIGHT.  NEXT S/W
COMES DOWN NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT...SO NORTHERN AREAS MAY NOT SEE TSRA
UNTIL LATE.  MAY PUT HIGHER POPS WEST FOR TONIGHT AND USE LATE WORDING
FOR NORTHEAST-EAST ZONES WITH POSSIBLY SEVERE WORDING. LOOKS LIKE
BOUNDAY MAY HANG AROUND NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS AND THE FACT THAT SFC FLW
WILL BE SOUTHEAST...DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY UP. WILL HAVE SOME MENTION OF
POPS IN ALL PERIODS HOWEVER.  WILL MAKE LAST MOMENT DECESION ON
NUMBERS.

TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY.  WITH ESE UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS ABOVE FWC
PROGS...LOWS (EASTERN CWA ANYWAY) MAY STAY ABOVE FWC TEMPS.  WITH FRONT
PUSHED BACK WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD OCCUR AND WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE
AROUND...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN FWC NUMBERS AND WILL GO CLOSER TO
AVN WHICH MAY BE A BIT WARM AS WELL.  SO...EXPECT SLIGHTY HIGHER
LOWS.

.DDC...NONE

DDC 066/089 066/088 064 322
GCK 064/091 063/089 062 222
EHA 063/092 063/090 062 222
LBL 063/091 064/089 062 222
HYS 064/084 064/087 063 333
P28 068/087 069/091 067 233

REITER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-220600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1058 AM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SYNOPSIS:  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER FAR WESTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING.  SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR
OVER THE AREA.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE.  AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPEMENT.  SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE UNDER THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

REITER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SYNOPSIS:  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE AREA MOST THREATENED APPEARS TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO
LIBERAL.

REITER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 AM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

SYNOPSIS:  THE MAIN THREAT (THOUGH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
COLDWATER.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMIANS IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA.  AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO KANSAS
TONIGHT.

REITER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  DODGE CITY KS
1250 PM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0954 AM    5 E ST. JOHN              KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   STAFFORD

0958 AM    5 E ST. JOHN              KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   STAFFORD                       COVERED GROUND

1023 AM    17 SE LACROSSE            KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   RUSH

1025 AM    14 NNE PRATT              KS   2.00 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   PRATT                          COVERING GROUND

1030 AM    10 NE LARNED              KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   PAWNEE

1030 AM    12 NE PRATT               KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   PRATT

1056 AM    CAIRO                     KS   1.50 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   PRATT                          COVERING GROUND

1103 AM    STAFFORD                  KS   WIND DAMAGE
08/20/97   STAFFORD                       65 TO 70 MPH WINDS
                                          POWER LINES DOWN

1105 AM    9 ESE ST. JOHN            KS   60 MPH WIND GUST
08/20/97   STAFFORD

1113 AM    ZENITH                    KS   60 MPH WIND GUST
08/20/97   STAFFORD

1208 PM    9 E GREENSBURG            KS   0.88 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   KIOWA

LEE