Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADD CCF NUMBERS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 AM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS AND TSTM CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS...

SHRTWV AS STRONGLY ADVERTIZED BY ETA YESTERDAY FOR NOW NEVER
MATERIALIZED AND NO TSTMS AROUND ANYWHERE. OF MAIN CONCERN FIRST
PERIOD TDY IS NEXT SHRTWV IN NWERLY FLOW IN SERN WY ATTM. ETA AND
NGM BOTH HINT AT THIS FTR HOWEVER H5 ANAL SHOWS NICE COLD TROF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WATER VAPOR LOOP IS ALSO PICKING IT UP WITH
A SHARP DRY BANDING. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS ALL CWA
TODAY AS MIDLVLS DESTABILIZE AND SFC BNDRY MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT SHLD BACK INTO ALL AREA BY AFTN AND GIVE NERLY TO ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ALSO MAY BE COOLER AS CLOUDS MAY INCREASE WITH
WAVE. WILL GO COOLER THAN ALL GUIDANCE TDY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW AND
INCRSG CLOUDS.

FOR TNGT AS UPSLOPE CONTINUES MSTR TO POOL INTO ERN CO AND FAR
WRN KS. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE FCST IN NWERLY FLOW TO BRING A PSBL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO SWRN KS FROM ERN CO. BEST CHANCES OF
PCPN SHLD BE IN WEST CWA AND WILL TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.
SOME SVR STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A BIG PROBLEM DEVELOPS FOR TEMPS ON THURSDAY...SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES WITH INCRSG DEWPOINTS. IF CLOUDS DO NOT BREAK UP HIGHS MAY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S. HOWEVER AFTER DISCUSSION WITH GLD STILL
THINK SOME BREAKS TO OCCUR. WILL STILL GO MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPS BUT AM A LITTLE LEARY TO GO TOO LOW. WILL HEDGE DIFFERENCES
WITH 5 DEGREE SPREAD AND GO NEAR 80 NORTH AND 80 TO 85 REST OF AREA
DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN CLOUD COVER. FRONT MAY STILL EDGE BACK
ACROSS ELKHART AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP AS ETA DEPICTS GOOD
INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION AND MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED
TRW.

THEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COMPLEX POSSIBLE AND WILL CONT WITH
HIGHER NIGHT TIME POPS WITH 40 TO 50 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

.DDC...NONE

DDC 085/064 082/065 081 242
GCK 085/063 082/065 081 242
EHA 087/064 086/064 087 252
LBL 086/064 082/066 083 242
HYS 083/060 079/062 079 232
P28 085/066 084/069 083 232

KRUSE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-220600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1058 AM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SYNOPSIS:  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER FAR WESTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING.  SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR
OVER THE AREA.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE.  AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPEMENT.  SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE UNDER THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

REITER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SYNOPSIS:  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE AREA MOST THREATENED APPEARS TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO
LIBERAL.

REITER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 AM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

SYNOPSIS:  THE MAIN THREAT (THOUGH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
COLDWATER.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMIANS IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA.  AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO KANSAS
TONIGHT.

REITER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  DODGE CITY KS
1250 PM CDT WED AUG 20 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0954 AM    5 E ST. JOHN              KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   STAFFORD

0958 AM    5 E ST. JOHN              KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   STAFFORD                       COVERED GROUND

1023 AM    17 SE LACROSSE            KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   RUSH

1025 AM    14 NNE PRATT              KS   2.00 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   PRATT                          COVERING GROUND

1030 AM    10 NE LARNED              KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   PAWNEE

1030 AM    12 NE PRATT               KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   PRATT

1056 AM    CAIRO                     KS   1.50 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   PRATT                          COVERING GROUND

1103 AM    STAFFORD                  KS   WIND DAMAGE
08/20/97   STAFFORD                       65 TO 70 MPH WINDS
                                          POWER LINES DOWN

1105 AM    9 ESE ST. JOHN            KS   60 MPH WIND GUST
08/20/97   STAFFORD

1113 AM    ZENITH                    KS   60 MPH WIND GUST
08/20/97   STAFFORD

1208 PM    9 E GREENSBURG            KS   0.88 INCH HAIL
08/20/97   KIOWA

LEE