Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 1997

FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CHC FOR PRECIP TDY WITH CLDS AND
ONGOING CNVTN...AND POPS TNGT.

RADAR LOOPS SHOWING AN AREA OF RW/TRW OVER CNTRL PTNS CWA ERLY THS
MRNG.  THIS APPRS TO BE CAUSED BY MID LVL S/W MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO CWA
AND INTERACTING WITH DFRMTN ZONE XTNDG FROM UPPR LOW OVR DSRT SW INTO
AREA.  PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES AS S/W
CONTS MOVG THRU BUT WILL CONT MNTN OF SCT/WDLY SCT PRECIP TDY.

MID/HI LVL CLDS AND WK LW LVL CAA SHOULD HOLD TMPS BACK SOME
TDY...SIMLR TO PREV FCST.  CURRENT GUIDANCE TMPS LOOK GOOD IN THIS
RESPECT AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEM FOR THE MOST PART.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING OUT UPPER LOW INTO TX PNHNDL BY
TUE MRNG.  SFC BNDRY HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO TX PNHNDL THS MRNG AND
XTNDS BACK NE INTO SERN KS.  THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR STG TSTMS AND
HEAVY RAIN TAFTN AND TNGT.  GUIDNC FRM HPC AND SPC LOOK GOOD IN THIS
RESPECT.  AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POSS OF SHOWERS TNGT WRAPPING AROUND
NORTH SIDE OF VORT MAX.  THINK FWC POPS ARE TOO OVERDONE WITH
THIS...ESP SINCE CNVCTIVE CMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY DVLP OVER W TX INTO
SRN OK THS EVE WILL ROB MOST OF AVAILABLE MOIST.  WILL CUT GUIDNC POPS
BACK BY ABOUT A HALF OVR SRN PTNS CWA TNGT AND GO WITH JUST PC CNDS
FURTHER NORTH.  WRMR TMPS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO <RGN.

.DDC...NONE.

DDC 078/057 082/059 089 32-
GCK 077/056 080/057 086 32-
EHA 078/057 082/056 087 22-
LBL 078/057 083/058 090 22-
HYS 080/059 082/059 089 3--
P28 083/063 086/064 091 23-

GERARD

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-170600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1115 AM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

SYNOPSIS:  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN KANSAS
THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THEN WEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AND AS THE SUN HEATS THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP WILL BE SEVERE.

SINCE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BURKE