Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 1997

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS FCST IS WHERE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE.
THEN...HOW CLOUDS WILL INFLUENCE TEMPS PDS 2 AND 3.

19Z SFC CHART CHART SHOWS SURFACE LOW ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER GCK WITH
WEAK DRY LINE TRAILING SW INTO ERN NM.  60+ DEW PTS COVER ERN 2/3RDS OF
CWA.  20Z ADAP SHOWS LI/S OF -6 ACRS ALL CWA AND NO CAP AS OF
20Z...THUS TSTMS COULD FIRE ANY TIME NOW.  FOR NOW...THINK FIRST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG BOUNDRY MARKED BY LINE OF CU FROM WEST OF HYS
TO WEST OF GCK.  THEN...THIS LN OF STORMS SHOULD MARCH EASTWARD AS
STORMS MOVE NEWD.  MUCH RICHER SFC MOISTURE IN E PART OF CWA...WITH 19Z
DEW PTS IN 67-68 DEG RANGE.  UPR FLOW VEERS(SLIGHTLY) TO WEST AND
SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS WEAK CAA TAKING PLACE ALOFT.  THIS ALL
POINTS TO PSBL SVR STORMS THIS EVENING IN S AND CNTRL PARTS OF CWA...WL
MENTION PSBL SVR THERE BUT WITH CHC POPS.
MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING SFC FRNT MARCHING ACROS
CWA FROM NW TNGT...THEN FROM W OKLA TO NE MO BY 16/12Z...THEN HIGH
PRESS PUSHES IT FARTHER S BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN MON NT
AND TUES.  WILL GO WITH LOWER CHC POPS IN ALL BUT NRN COUNTIES MON NT
AND TUES.

FOR TEMPS...WL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TNGT BUT LOWER BY A CATG MON/S
HIGHS WITH CLOUDS TO SURPRESS SOLAR HEATING.  THEN BACK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR PDS 3 AND 4.

.DDC...NONE.

DDC 060/078 058/081 0.60 444
GCK 059/078 060/079 059 444
EHA 059/075 060/080 060 344
LBL 063/080 061/084 060 344
HYS 058/083 061/083 059 243
P28 066/084 064/086 065 453

BURKE