Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1235 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 1997

...DISCUSSION...
WILL FOCUS ON SHORT-TERM INTO THE ERLY EVE. SCTD TSRA WORKG INTO
C-PA FROM WRN PA. LINEAR ROLL-LIKE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT IN
ASSCTN WITH DRYING AND COOLING ALOFT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR
LVL PV MAX TO THE E. AT THIS TIME THE CONVECTION WAS ORIENTED
WITH THE MEAN SHEAR IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER. THE SHEAR IS
QUITE STRG AS PER KPBZ AND KCCX 88D/S VWPS. THE CAPES PROBABLY
ARE NOT HIGH ENUF YET TO BALANCE THE INTENSE SHEAR... THUS
CONVECTION WAS LEANING OVR DOWNSHEAR FORMING THE ROLLS. WE HAVE
TO WATCH THE BNDRY IS SET UP OVR C-PA IN THESE FLO PATTERNS. THE
FLO OVR ERN PA IS SSE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLDS WHILE W-PA IS MORE
SW IN ASSCTN WITH MASS ADJUSTMENTS AHEAD OF THE UPR WV AND MORE
MIXING. A WELL-DEFINED PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROF WAS PRESENTLY WORKG
ACRS WRN PA WHICH WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWRLY LOW-LVL FLO
OF WELL-MIXED AIR. AS THIS BNDRY WORKS INTO C-PA... TSRA WILL
CONT TO SPREAD INTO C-PA. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS LOW STILL RECEIVED A
WIND GUST REPORTS TO 51 KTS JUST W OF JST. SMALL LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION TAPPING HIGH WINDS ARND 5 KFT. WE ARE MONITORING RADAR
CLOSELY.

WE WILL HV TO ESPECIALLY WATCH WHEN THESE LINEAR ROLL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES WORK E AND INTERSECT THE MORE S-SE FLOWING LOW-LVL AIR
MASS OVR C/ERN PA. WHEN THIS OCCURS WE MAY SEE CONVECTIVES CELLS
TAKE OFF. COMPARISON OF KPBZ AND KCCX VWPS AT 1615 UTC SHOWS THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW-LVL SHEAR PROFILES ACRS THE CLR/CLDY
LINE/BNDRY OVR C-PA. AMS WAS BREAKING OUT INTO SWRN PA AS WELL...
AOO AT 70/58!! SOMEWHAT HIER DWPTS CONTINUALLY STREAMING INTO
SERN PA TOO W/ ENHANCE SRLY FLO. THUS... I EXPECT HIER CAPES ACRS
C/SERN PA TOO.

TIME ACVTY INTO SUS VLLY MIDDLE AFTERNOON... BTWN 2 AND 4 PM.
MOST ACVTY E OF SUS VLLY EARLY EVE HOURS. THINK A BKN LN OF STRG
TRW WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE ACRS ERN PA WITH SOME BOW
ECHOES.

NICOSIA

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-040200-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT--THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
11 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 1997

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE...OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE INTO NEW
YORK STATE BY THIS EVENING.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...PRODUCING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES.

FITZGERALD

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-040200-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT--THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
11 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 1997

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE...OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE INTO NEW
YORK STATE BY THIS EVENING.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...PRODUCING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
  R
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES.

FITZGERALD