Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
248 AM CST FRI APR 04 1997

MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS RUNNING TONIGHT...NGM ONLY MODEL THAT HAS
COME IN SO FAR.  AFTER SOME HAND ANALYSIS AND A LOOK AT 12Z DATA
FEEL FLASH FLOODING A STRONG POSSIBILITY AND TODAY WE WILL THROW
SEVERE WX INTO THAT MIX. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT VERY HIGH EASTERN
COUNTIES NEAR VCT...DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH A
SHEAR PROFILE THAT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...FEW TORNADOS AND SOME
HAIL.

AT THIS TIME...A DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL
MOVE EAST OF VCT BY 6 AM.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS SOUTH TX TODAY THAT WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA WITH
HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN. THE THIRD/FINAL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BE
THE STRONGEST TO TRACK ACROSS THIS EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST MEXICO PUSHES NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL TONIGHT EAST OF A TILDEN
TO FREER LINE.

THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL BE IN A SQUALL LINE BUT WILL
BE VERY SLOW MOVING BECAUSE WE WILL BE AT ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT AND
COULD BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES.  WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS
WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. PWS SUPPORT THIS WITH VALUES OF NEAR
2.00 INCHES.

DRY AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT WEST NR LRD AND INTO CRP/VCT
BY 12Z SATURDAY.  DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER.

ZONES FOR TODAY...FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH...POSSIBLE SEVERE
ALL AREAS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...
VCT/CRP...SHRA AND TSRA LIKELY.  POPS OF 60 PERCENT.  HIGHS...
      LOW 80S.  SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH.
LRD...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA.  HIGHS...MID 80S.
      SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH.

TEMPS AND POPS...
CRP 083/060 081/059 6700
VCT 082/059 078/057 7810
LRD 085/060 082/059 5600  THIS EVENING
LUNA...0074