Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
810 PM CDT MON MAY 12 1997

THE MAIN QUESTION OF THE NIGHT CONCERNS POTENTIAL SVR WX/HVY RAIN.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS DISC FROM CRP AND EWX THAT ISOLD SVR PULSE TYPE
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH CAPES AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WND FIELDS.  (WILL BE WATCHING VIL LEVELS AS EWX
RECEIVED AROUND 1/2 INCH HAIL FROM STMS WITH VILS FROM 50 TO 55.)

ALTHOUGH SHARP WAS NOT ABLE TO COMPUTE A CAPE FOR THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING...FEEL THAT CRP/S 00Z SOUNDING IS A MUCH BETTER
REPRESENTATION OF OUR ATMS THAN DRT/S 00Z FLIGHT.  ALL 00Z FLIGHTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES. THIS FACTOR
AND PAST HISTORY OF HVY RAIN PRODUCTION OVER EWX/S CWA SHOULD MOVE
HVY RAIN POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARYS
PROGRESS.  ACCORDINGLY...WOULD LIKE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF "LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE" IN THE 1ST PD OF TXZ248>255.  WILL HANDLE
MENTION OF HAIL AND WND GUSTS IN NOW/SPS'S.

IN THE CWF...HAVE JUST RECEIVED A MAREP VIA PHONE THAT SWELLS ARE
<3 FT ABOUT 2 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL.  ALSO...BUOY002 SHOWS
SWELLS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT WITH A SLOW BUT STEADY DOWNWARD
TREND. ^ ALTHOUGH WNDS BEHIND THE PASSIGN FRONT MAY INCREASE THE
SWELLS TEMPORARILY...WOULD LIKE TO ADJUST WORDING OF CWF TO "SEAS 2
FEET NEARSHORE TO 4 FT OFFSHORE".

OTHERWISE...REST OF ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

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