Tornado Warning 1, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 1997

RADAR AND SAT LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALG AND JUST S OF WARM FRNT
WITH AXIS OF GREATEST THETA ADVECTION AND MCON.  AS THESE PARAMETERS
WORK THEIR WAY NEWD THIS EVE AND GET A BIT OF AID FROM VORT LOBE
PASSING THRU...XPCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DVLP ACRS THE SRN TIER.  BEST CHC
FOR ANY STG STORMS WILL BE OVR NRN PA/XTREME WRN PTNS OF THE FA WHERE
HIEST INSTAB AND SHEAR PROFILES CO-EXIST.  LTR TNT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO OUR NRN ZNS IN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME N OF THE LL BNDRY.  POS
THETA-E BULLSEYE WILL BE OVR THIS AREA AS WELL.  EMPHASIZED MAINLY EVE
ACTIVITY OVR MUCH OF THE SRN TIER.  POPS DIMINISH TO CHC CATEGORY IN
THE CATSK FURTHEST AWAY FROM UL SUPPORT.

WED...ETA HAS COME IN A LTL SLOWER THIS RUN WITH MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRNT.  THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS.  IN FACT...WUDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE SYS PROGRESS EVEN SLOWER THAN PROGGED WITH LOTS OF
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROF AXIS AND FRNT ALIGNED PARALLEL TO MID LVL
FLOW.  WILL TIME FROPA DURING THE MIDDAY AND ERLY AFTN HRS WRN SXNS AND
NOT TIL THE ERLY EVE IN THE CATSK/POCONOS.  GOOD UL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH RR QUAD LIFT FROM 3H JET AND APPCH OF STG SHRT WV.  INTENSITY
AND NATURE OF THE PRE-FRNTL ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND TO A LRG XTENT ON HOW
MUCH SS WE SEE.  THINK BEST CHC FOR THIS WILL BE S AND E OF BGM.  WILL
GO ALG WITH LKLY GUIDANCE POPS THIS PD.

WED NGT AND THU...THINGS DRY OUT FROM W TO E.  I/LL CARRY LINGERING
POPS FAR ERN ZNS ERLY THU NGT.  MODEL SNDGS SHOW POST-FRNTL SC FOR SVRL
HRS THU NGT...THEN CLRG TAKES PLACE ALL AREAS BY FRI AM.  P/SNY WILL BE
THE SKY COVER OF CHOICE FRI WITH UL TROF/COLD POOL SLOW TO DEPART.

ZNS WIBIS SHORTLY.

.BGM...NONE.

JUREWICZ