Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Amarillo, TX

FPUS3 KAMA 160903
AFDAMA

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
404 AM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

WEAK SHRTWV...DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK
RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY ACRS THE CENTRAL AND NRN SECTIONS
OF THE FA. XPC TO SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHWRS/TSTMS AS LEAD
SHRTWV PUSHES E OF THE AREA.  ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LVL LOW KICKS OUT AND ACRS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE PNHDLS.
MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND PATH THAT
THE UPR LOW WL TRAVEL...PLACING IT NEAR CDS BY 12Z TUE MORNING AND
INTO SE OK BY 48 HRS.  WITH DIFFLUENT FLO PATTERN CONTG AND GOOD
LIFT BEING GENERATED BY THE SHRTWV...WL KEEP CHC/LKLY POPS GOING
THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING THEM OFF FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EJECTING UPR LVL LOW WL LKLY SHUT THINGS DOWN
BY TUE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDS ON WED.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR TWO COMING OUT OF THE MTNS IN THE
FAR WRN ZONES DURING THE EVENING HRS...SO WL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHC
OF MAINLY EVE STORMS THOSE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR S WL THE WEAK FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSH
BEFORE STALLING OUT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE FOR OUR
CONVECTION.  ETA FCSTD SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPATABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 0.90 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND QPF BRANCH FCSTG ONE
INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ACRS MUCH OF THE TX PNHDL. WITH SFC LOW TO OUR S
...FRONT WL LKLY STALL OUT...MORE IN LINE WITH THE AVN...WHICH WL
LEAD US TO MORE OF AN OVERRUNNING TYPE OF EVENT WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION.  HAD DISCUSSIONS ABOUT ISSUING AN FFA ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE PNHDLS...ESPECIALLY THE SERN SECTIONS...BUT WL DEFER THIS TO THE
DAY SHIFT AND THE 12Z RUNS. WE WL...HOWEVER...MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE IN THE SRN SECTIONS OF
THE PNHDLS...CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LVL LOW...ALTHOUGH BEST
SEVERE THREAT LKLY TO BE ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  WL GO
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY ABV POPS 1ST AND 2ND
PDS.  NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PLANNED ATTM.

RUNNING LATE DUE TO MAJOR AFOS PROBLEMS...BUT THANKS TO THE INTERNET
...WE GOT WHAT WE NEEDED.  THANKS FOR THE COORD DDC AND OUN.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

COLTON

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-170500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN-THIRD AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

A STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO.  A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES LAST NIGHT WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN-THIRD AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM SOME OF THESE
STORMS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN-THIRD AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIHONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

SCHNEIDER

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-170500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN-THIRD AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

A STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO.  A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES LAST NIGHT WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN-THIRD AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM SOME OF THESE
STORMS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN-THIRD AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

SCHNEIDER