Severe Thunderstorm Warning 387, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
850 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 1996

SO FAR ONLY A FEW TSRA HV DVLPD ACRS WRN OK. NRN STRM APRD TO HV A
CLASSIC SPLIT EARLIER W/WELL DEFINED LEFT AND RIGHT MOVERS. THIS
FALLS IN LINE W/WND PROFILERS AND 00Z OUN SNDG WHICH SHOW JUST A
LTL VEERING W/HEIGHT BUT OVERALL FAIRLY STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS.
RIGHT MVG PART OF THIS SPLIT IS CRNTLY A FEW CNTYS AWAY FM FA.

MEANWHILE A CPL OTHER RIGHT MVG STRMS ARE IN SW OK. 00Z SNDGS AND
12Z MDLS SHOW CAP STRGR FURTHER E AND S. SO ALTHO SW OK STRMS ARE
HEADED TWDS MOIST AXIS THEY SHLD BE FACING MORE CAPPING. WOULD XCPT
SRN STRMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MV TWDS SE OK. HOWEVER 15Z MESOETA DOES
SHOW A SMALL PRECIP BULLSEYE MVG ACRS SE OK INTO SW AR BY 12Z AND
THUS FAR ITS SOLN SEEMS TO BE DOING A FAIR JOB HANDLING CRNT
SCENERIO. WL HV TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. BUT PREV THINKING OF CHC POPS
IN SE OK LOOKS FINE.

HEALTHY CAP SHOWN AT SGF ON 00Z SNDG BUT GOOD LAPSE RATES ABV CAP.
AS S/W PROGRESSES EWD MID LVL TEMPS WL COOL. NOT SURE IF THIS WL BE
ENOUGH TO HV SFC BASED CNVCTN IN NE ZNS BUT BELIEVE ELEVATED TSRA
CAN MV/DVLP THERE LATER TNGT. SO WL LET CRNT POPS RIDE.

INIT WND SHFT/SFC TROF HAS MADE IT INTO WRN OSAGE CNTY ATTM WHILE
APRS THAT CDFNT STILL LAGS BEHIND IN CNTRL KS. TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES BY PREV FCSTR LOOKS REASONABLE SO WL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS TO
MIN TEMPS OR WNDS.

07

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.