Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1000 AM CDT THU MAY 9 1996

MULTICELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS NE OK WHICH FORMED ALONG A COLD
FRONT ARE HOLDING BELOW SEVERE LEVELS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY REAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TRW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A NEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK AND NW
AR. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND EXPECT LI'S OVER SE OK TO APPROACH -10. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER
SE OK WITH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. CAP IS FAIRLY STRONG AS
WELL OVER SE OK...BUT MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF H5 S/W SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO BE
BROKEN.

ANOTHER MAJOR QUESTION WILL BE WHERE COLD FRONT WILL END UP
TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRES RISES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER SE OK SO FRONT WILL NOT PUSH TOO MUCH...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE SWD. WILL NOT CHANGE TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT/TEMPS THIS UPDATE.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS FLASH FLOODING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
SLOW MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL...
HOWEVER FF GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH OVER SE OK ( > 2"/1 HR,
> 3"/6 HRS). CAP SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTHERNOON
THERE TOO. WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR POSS FFW BUT WILL NOT ISSUE
ATTM. AFTER SUNSET...FRONT SHOULD START MOVING SWD AND BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING WITH LINGERING RW/TRW BEHIND THE FRONT.

26

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-111200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTCENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WESTCENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ALTUS TO BRISTOW TO MIAMI. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WARM AIR
ALOFT WAS INHIBITING FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 4PM OVER
AREAS NORTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF MUSKOGEE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...IT WILL BRING COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT TO ACCELERATE IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
OVER THE AREA.

BY 6PM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR GROVE TO
HENRYETTA TO NEAR ADA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
THE FRONT THIS EVENING...BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE. JET STREAM WINDS ARE ONLY MODERATELY
STRONG...SO THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS ALL
OF THE AREA BY, OR SHORTLY AFTER, MIDNIGHT.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THxIS AFTERNOON IN EASTCENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WESTCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND OVER ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS FROM 5PM TO MIDNIGHT.

OKZ068-070-072-101830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
116 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 1996

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MUSKOGEE COUNTY EXPIRED AT 115 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO CHEROKEE AND SEQUOYAH COUNTIES...BUT
HAD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
204 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1120 AM    2S RED BIRD        .       OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/10/96   MUSCOGEE