Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1025 AM CDT THU SEP 26 1996

A BUSY NIGHT HAS TURNED INTO A BUSY DAY. RAINFALL REPORTS IN EXCESS
OF 6 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE MESONET AT WESTVILLE AND
FROM COOP OBSERVER AT TAHLEQUAH. ANLYS OF MRNG UA DATA SHOWS WNDS
AOA 700 MB ALL PARALLEL TO CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION.
THEREFORE...SLOW MOVEMENT WL STILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS MRNG.
WV IMGRY SHOWS ANOTHER S/W NOW OVR TX PNHDL AND WRN OK THAT WL
SWING EWD THIS AFTN. IT MAY FINALLY SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AND
END TRAINING OF CELLS AND REDUCE THE FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOC MID LVL DRYING ALONG WITH 50+ KT MID-LVL JET STREAK WL BE THE
IMPETUS FOR MORE SVR WX. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE FSM AREA WHERE LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING UP AHEAD OF MAIN TSRA LINE. AS
S/W APPROACHES...AND MSTR INFLOW CONTS WITH INCRG DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR...THIS CUD BE WHERE MORE SVR WX GETS STARTED THIS AFTN.

WL NOT CHANGE AREAL COVERAGE OF FFA. THE NRN COUNTIES IN THE WATCH
AREA MAY NOT NECESSARILY RECEIVE ANY MORE HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTER 2-
3 INCHES...IT WUD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE RAIN TO CAUSE MORE PROBLEMS.
WL ISSUE FFS TO UPDATE THE SITUATION. SE OK WL LIKELY SEE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THIS AFTN AS FWD HAD A 12Z 850 MB DWPT OF 17C AND
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. WELL-DEFINED THETA-E AXIS WAS
LOCATED ALONG 40-KT LO-LVL JET AXIS STRETCING THROUGH FWD INTO SE
OK AND W-CENTRALH AR. ZNS MAY BE ABOUT 10-15 MINS LATE.

22

.TUL...
.OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZNS 62/63/65>77.
.AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZNS 1/2/10/11/19/29.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-271200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT THU SEP 26 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT LATER TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS WEAKENED AROUND 300 AM AND HAVE NOT BEEN
SEVERE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  NEVERTHELESS VERY HEAVY RAINS
HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE STORMS.  ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AS IT HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED BY THE LATE
NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH.  STORMS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS MAY
INTENSIFY QUICKLY AND BECOME SEVERE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE THERE IS ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND BE READY FOR ACTIVATION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.  THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DAILY
FROM MID MARCH TO MID JUNE.  DURING THE REST OF THE YEAR...THEY
WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.