Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 AM CDT THU SEP 26 1996

MCS CONTINUES OVR NRN OKLA EARLY THIS MORN...AND SOME SVR WX AND
HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALRDY OCCURRED IN AREAS N OF TUL.  MARGINAL INSTBY
HAS KEPT SVR WEATHER LIMITED OVR FA SO FAR DESPITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE. COLD FRONT AT 08Z WAS ON THE MOVE ACRS SE KS AND NORTHERN
OKLA.

XPCT COLD FRONT TO CONT MOVG SEWD THIS MORN BEFORE SLOWING SE OF TUL
BY THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO POWERFUL SHORTWV MOVG SEWD THRU ROCKIES.
WITH STG LO LVL JET CONTG AHD OF CURRENT ACTIVITY THIS MORN...BELIEVE
THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS ACRS NW ARK AND SE OK THRU
THIS EVE. WL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS S AND E OF TUL WHERE
THE BIGGEST THREAT SHUD BE BY LATER THIS MORN.

THE MAIN SVR WX THREAT TDA SHUD BE ACRS SE OK NEAR THE SPC MODT RISK.
THE AIRMASS SHUD BE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AREA AND WIND PROFILE PROGD TO
BE FAVBL FOR LONG LIVED STORMS.

COLD FRONT SHUD START MOVG AGAIN THIS EVE AND SHUD BE ACRS EXTRM SE
OK BY 12Z FRI.  HI POPS TO CONT BEHIND THE FRONT TONITE/FRI AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT OF RICH LO LVL MSTR CONTS.  PCPN TO TAPER OFF FROM
THE NW ON FRI AFTN AS COLDER/DRIER AIR DEEPENS. FRI WL BE A RATHER
CHILLY DAY ACRS NRN ZONES AS MO CLDY SKIES AND AREAS OF RAIN KEEPS
TEMPS IN 50S FOR MAXES.

TUL 70/50/59/45 +741     MLC 79/55/62/46 9863
BVO 66/47/56/44 +631     IDB 83/62/72/52 8873
FYV 77/55/59/46 ++63     FSM 78/61/66/49 9+63
                                                      /9
.TUL...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
     ZONES 62 63 65>77.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ZONES 1 2 10 11 19 29.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-271200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT THU SEP 26 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT LATER TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS WEAKENED AROUND 300 AM AND HAVE NOT BEEN
SEVERE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  NEVERTHELESS VERY HEAVY RAINS
HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE STORMS.  ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AS IT HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED BY THE LATE
NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH.  STORMS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS MAY
INTENSIFY QUICKLY AND BECOME SEVERE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE THERE IS ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND BE READY FOR ACTIVATION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.  THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DAILY
FROM MID MARCH TO MID JUNE.  DURING THE REST OF THE YEAR...THEY
WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.