Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
150 PM CDT WED AUG 28 1996

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STAYING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SO FAR TODAY.  THEREFORE...WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...WILL NOT BE TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS A SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS THAN WAS FORECAST ON PREVIOUS RUNS.
FAVOR THE ETA AND AVIATION MODELS AS THE ETA VERIFIED BEST FROM THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND NGM APPEARS TOO FAST.  SATELLITE DOES SHOW A NICE
WIND MAXIMUM PUSHING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ORGANIZE THINGS A BIT OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ADAP CURRENTLY HAS
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6 DEGREES CELSIUS.  BUT WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE NOT TO MENTION LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...DONT SEE ANYTHING BECOMING
SEVERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE NESTED MODEL CAN BE SEEN ON GUIDANCE NUMBERS
WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO DRY.  AVIATION GUIDANCE LOOKS BEST ON BOTH
TEMPS AND POPS.  HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
PERIODS WOULD IMPLY LOW CLOUDS AND THEREFORE MILD TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW.

ABI 067/081 74
SJT 068/081 55

OAKS

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-291335-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
228 PM CDT WED AUG 28 1996

...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED NONSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH LIGHT WINDS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.  HOWEVER...THESE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH A POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUST TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OAKS

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