Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
159 AM CDT THU AUG 29 1996

PROFILER NETWORK AND GOES 8 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A 500 MB
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SJT TO FTW. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT...SLOWING THE SOUTHWARD PROGESSION OF THE SHEAR AXIS...
HOLDING IT JUST SOUTH OF ITS PRESENT POSITION THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
THE ETA...WHICH DEFINITELY HANDLED THE FEATURE BEST IN THE PAST 24
HOURS...BRINGS SUBSIDENCE AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DIVERGENCE
OVER THE NORTHERN CORNER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM 18Z TO 00Z.
THE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
NORTHEN PANHANDLE AT THE MOMENT... FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER WAVE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AM HESITANT TO TRIM ABI POPS AT THE
MOMENT...GIVEN THE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE AND UPSTREAM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 150 TO 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY EASILY REACHED ONCE AGAIN IN THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS...AND WILL HAVE SEVERAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS
CONVECTION UPON. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AFTER DARK SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...
NEAR THE STALLED UPPER SHEAR AXIS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SJT SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY A LITTLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER...BUT MAYBE NOT AS MUCH AS THE NGM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...STILL MID 80S. PERSISTANCE THE BEST
FORECAST FOR MORNING LOWS...GIVEN CONSISTANT DEWPOINTS ARBOUND 70.

...PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

ABI 082/069 54
SJT 086/070 55

BAKER