Severe Thunderstorm Warning 474, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
210 PM CST SUN NOV 24 1996

UNABLE TO RETRIEVE PCGRIDDS OR GEMPAK THIS AFTN SO HAVE TO RELY ON
AFOS GRAPHICS FOR MODEL DATA.

ALL THREE MODELS DVLP A SIMILAR SOLUTION THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR POSITION AND TIMING ERRORS. AM A BIT SURPRISED THAT
ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PULLING MID LVL CIRCULATION TO THE N THAN
NGM. THIS IS NGMS NORMAL BIAS. AVN IS...AS USUAL...THE SLOWER OF THE
THREE BUT NOT BY MUCH.

MID/UPR LVL CIRCULATION OVR S TX VERY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS AFTN WITH DRY SLOT/VORT LOBE ALSO EVIDENT MOVG TO THE NE ACRS
E TX ATTM. MODELS PICKED THIS UP AS THEY MOV CIRCULATION ARND THE
BASE OF THE TROF AS JET MAX PULLS TO THE ENE AS WELL. AFTER JET MAX
PULLS OUT OF AREA ERLY MON MRNG...UPR LVL TROF SHUD BGN TO FILL RAPIDLY
AND MOV NE...BECOMING PART OF BROAD FLAT ERN U.S. TROF BY ERLY TUE.
WRAP ARND MSTR IS SUFFICIENT TO CONT PCPN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA INTO
MIDDAY MON BEFORE PREVIOUSLY MENTION UPR LVL TROF PASSES TO THE E
AND PCPN ENDS. R LIKELY TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY THRU THE NIGHT...HWVR...
AS FIRST VORT LOBE IS MOVG OVER AREA NOW AND MAIN VORT LOBE LIKELY TO
EJECT OUT OF TROF ACRS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF CWA LATE TONIGHT AND ERLY
MON.

AM CONCERNED ABOUT AMT OF LOW LVL COLD AIR COMING INTO NRN AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. TEMPS ALRDY IN THE LOW 30S ACRS PARTS OF
ERN AND SRN OK AND INTO THE UPR 30S IN TX E OF DFW. FILL BEST CHCS
FOR FREEZING OR MIX WILL BE ACRS EXTREME SE OK...EXTREME SW AR N OF
TXK AND AREAS OF NE TX N OF A LINE FROM FROM ABOUT QUITMAN TO NEW
BOSTON. SE OK AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THESE WUD LIKELY
BE LIGHT. RECOMMEND CONTINUING WINTER WEATHER WATCH SE OK WITH POSSIBLE
ADVISORY EXTREME NE TX AND EXTREME SW AR.

FOR REST OF THE AREA SHUD RMN A COLD RAIN AFTER FROPA. WILL STAY CLOSE
TO AVN AND NGM MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS THIS FCST PERIOD AS
BOTH PROVIDE REASON ABLE NUMBERS.

SHV 41/43/34/50 +720   MLU 47/49/36/50 9841

18

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