Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 AM CST SUN NOV 24 1996

THANKS FOR COORD FTW AND NEW.  FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR TX AND LA
COUNTIES/PARISHES...ALSO TO INCLUDE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

WILL BE A WET...COLD...WINDY FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODELS SIMILAR IN
SOLUTION FROM THE 24/00 UTC RUN WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN LOCATIONS OF
FRONTAL POSITIONS...MAX UVV...AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION
THROUGH FORECAST CYCLE BUT NOT MUCH. LIKE TO ETA BEST SINCE A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE MODELS.

FOR SEVERE AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS DISCUSSION SEE MKCSWODY1 AND
MKCSWODY2.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AM (3AM CST) SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM SE
OK FROM NEAR MT HERMAN SOUTH TO NEAR KPRX (PARIS IN NE TX) AND THEN
SW ACROSS N CENTRAL TX TO NEAR KACT AND W TX TO NEAR KDRT. OUT AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT DEW POINTS ACROSS FA DEW POINTS RANGED FROM NEAR 60 OVER
THE EAST TO THE MID 60S OVER THE W SECTIONS OF CWA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT.
EARLY THIS AM NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA WERE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF 25H JET AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN THIS
REGION.

LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHERN PART OF TX TO MOVE THROUGH S LA
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH MS EARLY MONDAY WILL PROVIDE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER COLD AIR BEHIND SYSTEM WITH RAIN THROUGH
PERIOD.

SHV 66/40/44 ++8  MLU 68/46/47 8++

SIX