Tornado Warning 30, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT MON JUL 8 1996

TODAY'S PROBLEMS: HOW LONG WILL KS MCS PERSIST...AND HOW MUCH OF AN
EFFECT WILL IT HAVE ON HIGHS TODAY AND POPS THIS AFTN?

LTST STLT AND 88D DATA INDICATED DUAL MCS SYSTEMS OVER KS HEADED TOWARD
CWA. LAST FEW STLT LOOPS INDICATE THAT SRN SYSTEM NEAR ICT IS WINNING
BATTLE. MOVMEMENT IS ESE AT 20-30 MPH...SO IT SHOULD MOVE INTO SE KS
COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. SVR POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT NOT QUITE SURE IF THAT
WILL CONT THRU SUNRISE. ANSWER TO QUESTION #1.

06Z PROFILERS SHOW REASON BEHIND MCS DEVELOPMENT: H5 WAVE ALONG NE/KS
BORDER. ALSO...BAND OF SWLY H8 WINDS HELPING FUEL FIRE SOMEWHAT. 00Z
MODELS TAKE VORT MAX TO BETWEEN TOP/MCI BY 12Z AND THEN DIFFERENCES
SHOW UP: ETA SWINGS SECOND COLD FRONT THRU CWA THIS AFTN...WHILE
NGM/AVN WAIT UNTIL THIS EVE/TNGT TO MOVE IT INTO AR. GIVEN RECENT
TENDENCY FOR ETA TO RUSH THINGS...FOLLOWING NGM/ AVN LEAD ON THIS ONE.

SECOND PART OF PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS NOT QUITE AS CLEAR-CUT: ASSUMING
MCS MOVES THRU CWA THIS AM AND WEAKENS...AIRMASS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
SOMEWHAT AND CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK A LITTLE. STILL...
WITH BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT LIKE COINS
IN A FOUNTAIN...AND PLENTY OF RH STILL IN VICINITY...CHC POPS STILL
JUSTIFIED. ALSO...CAP WILL CONT TO WEAKEN...INCREASING PCPN CHCS.

CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF PCPN TNGT AS COLD FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES THRU. 40-50% WARRANTED. FOR TUE...CHC POPS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
IN AM AS FRONT CLEARS CWA...BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN WX SHOULD
FOLLOW FOR REST OF DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE OZARKS.

ALSO...WOULD LIKE TO BREAK 1ST PD OFd ZFP INTO THIS AM/THIS AFTN WITH
HIGHER POPS THIS AM IN JLN AND MAYBE SGF GROUPS AND CHC THIS AFTN.

SGF EE 086/065 080/060 079 08643
JLN EE 088/067 082/062 081 08743

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KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
117 AM CDT MON JUL 8 1996

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD SUNRISE...

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...TWO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES HAD FORMED OVER
KANSAS. ONE COMPLEX WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE
WHILE THE OTHER WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS WERE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST.

THE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI REMAINED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THUS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE AS THEY APPROACH MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ABOUT THE TIME AND EXACT LOCATIONS THESE
COMPLEXES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE JOPLIN AREA WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 400
AM WHILE THE OTHER COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OSCEOLA AND WARSAW
AREAS AFTER 600 AM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL EXISTS
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 400 AM IN THE JOPLIN AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AREAS AND AFTER 600 AM IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI.
STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER UPDATES AND FORECASTS.

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KSZ073-097-101-MOZ067>069-077>081-088>096-101>105-081440-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 AM CDT MON JUL 8 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...AND ISOLATED...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

THE WATCH EXTENDED SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO CAMDENTON TO
GAINESVILLE...AND INCLUDES THE CITIES OF SPRINGFIELD...JOPLIN...LEBANON
...BRANSON...BOLIVAR AND NEVADA.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF BARRY  BARTON  CEDAR  DADE  JASPER
LAWRENCE  MCDONALD  NEWTON  ST. CLAIR  VERNON  CHRISTIAN  DALLAS
DOUGLAS  GREENE  LACLEDE OZARK POLK  STONE  TANEY  WEBSTER  WRIGHT

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