Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ....CORRECTION FOR TYPO 2ND PARA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
825 PM CDT SAT APR 27 1996

FCST PROBS DEAL WITH TIMING DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING SUNDAY OVR MISSOURI.

SFC MAP SHOWS SFC LOW SLIPPING SOUTH OVR ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH WARM
FRONT ALONG KS/OKLA BORDER THEN EAST TO JUST NORTH OF JLN/SGF.
SHARP TEMP CONTRAST WITH 50S/60 AIZ/COU AREAS TO AR 70 JLN/PPF.
MOST OF THE EARLIER RAIN HAS PUSHED JUST NORTH OF MY CWA.

FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PLAYING THE WAIT AND SEE GAME.  OUN SOUNDING
STILL CAPPED SOMEWHAT.  SGF 00Z SOUNDING HAS NO CAP BUT WILL NEED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE TO BECOME UNSTABLE.  SFC MAP SHOWS 61 DEW
PT AT ENID OKLA AND THIS MOIST TONGUE INTERSECTS THE FRONT BTWN ENID
AND WICHITA.  THIS IS THE AREA TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT.  JUST PEEKED
AT KICT/KVNX RADARS AND SURE ENOUGH FEW STORMS GETTING GOING SOUTH OF
ICT.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THESE STORMS TO GROW RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS NOCTURNAL JET INCREASES.  WOULD EXPECT ANY STORMS
TO SLIDE EAST OR ESE ALONG WARM FRONT INTO SW MO/FAR SE KS TONIGHT.
EVENTUALLY LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS TO FORM AND MOVE THRU MUCH
OF FCST AREA ON SUNDAY.  FFG GUIDANCES LOWEST SCNTRL MO AND HIGHEST
SE KS.  THUS IF THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY NEED TO PUT FFA
OUT FOR MUCH OF SW/SCNTRL MO.    6 HOUR FFG GUIDANCE SHOWS 2.8 INCHES
SCNTRL MO TO 6 INCHES BOURBON CO KS.

MAY NEED TO BEEF UJP THUNDERSTORM WORDING OVERNIGHT FOR SGF ZONE...O/W
ZONES FOR KS AND MO LOOK GOOD.

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KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
900 PM CDT SAT APR 27 1996

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR
.
...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA EAST
TO JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER THEN TO NORTH OF
SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN MISSOURI.  AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL INTERSECT THE WARM FRONT AND CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT AND MORE MOISTURE
IS PUMPED ACROSS THE FRONT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  THERE IS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAINLY SOUTH OF A FORT SCOTT TO NEVADA TO BOLIVAR TO WEST PLAINS
LINE.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.  THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY.

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER TONIGHT.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON CAMPING OUT TONIGHT...CHOOSE YOUR CAMPSITE
CAREFULLY. REMEMBER TO AVOID LOW AREAS THAT WOULD FLOOD EASILY DURING
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. ABOVE ALL...CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAINFALL SITUATION.

RIDDLE

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ...CORRECTION FOR WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
900 PM CDT SAT APR 27 1996

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR
.
...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA EAST
TO JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER THEN TO NORTH OF
SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN MISSOURI.  AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL INTERSECT THE WARM FRONT AND CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT AND MORE MOISTURE
IS PUMPED ACROSS THE FRONT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  THERE IS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAINLY SOUTH OF A FORT SCOTT TO NEVADA TO BOLIVAR TO WEST PLAINS
LINE.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.  THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON SUNDAY.

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER TONIGHT.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON CAMPING OUT TONIGHT...CHOOSE YOUR CAMPSITE
CAREFULLY. REMEMBER TO AVOID LOW AREAS THAT WOULD FLOOD EASILY DURING
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. ABOVE ALL...CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAINFALL SITUATION.

RIDDLE

KSZ073-097-101-281010-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1106 PM CDT SAT APR 27 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 5 AM
CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 5 AM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
BOURBON...CRAWFORD...CHEROKEE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF KANSAS AFTER 1 AM.  VA FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO TV...RADIO...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ANY WARNINGS.

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