Flash Flood Warning 98, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
810 PM EDT THU SEP 5 1996

RECOMMENDATIONS...
WBC...THANKS FOR CALL.
CRW AND RDU...NONE.

SHORT DISCUSSION...
AT 7 PM...HUR FRAN WAS LCTD NR 33.4 N 78.1 W OR ABT 60 MILES S OF
WILMINGTON NC.  FRAN WAS MOVG TOWRDS N-NW NR 16 MPH WITH MAX SUS
WINDS NR 115 MPH. GOOD PIX OF FRAN ON KMHX WSR-88D.  TRACK OF HUR
FRAN WILL DETERMINE WX FORECAST. CRRNT NHC TRCK...SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST OF EARLIER PATH...WUD SLICE RNK CWA IN HALF. RAINY AND WINDY WX
EXPTED OVRNT AND FRI.  TIMING OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES LOOK GOOD FOR
CWA.
KK

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-061510-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 AM EDT FRI SEP 6 1996

...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
   NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE
   WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL
   VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL OF
   NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
   WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 630 AM TROPICAL STORM FRAN WAS LOCATED OVER CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 20 MPH.

LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS A LARGE THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHICH
RECEIVED FLOODING RAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FROM 7 AM ON WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  WEST OF THE TRACK ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS.  RAINFALL WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH INCLUDES HALIFAX
...CHARLOTTE...BUCKINGHAM...APPOMATTOX... AMHERST...CAMPBELL... AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS GUSTS COULD APPROACH...60 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS VIRGINIA
NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AT 20 TO 35 MPH.

WITH THE SATURATED SOIL THESE WINDS CAN EASILY UPROOT POORLY ROOTED
LARGE TREES.  NUMEROUS TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN BLOWN DOWN IN COUNTIES
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA LINE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRAN AND ISSUE WARNINGS AS NECESSARY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATLHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST ON THIS VERY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-061710-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 AM EDT FRI SEP 6 1996

...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
   NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE
   WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL
   VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL OF
   NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
   WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 630 AM TROPICAL STORM FRAN WAS LOCATED OVER CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 20 MPH.

LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS A LARGE THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHICH
RECEIVED FLOODING RAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FROM 7 AM ON WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  WEST OF THE TRACK ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS.  RAINFALL WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH INCLUDES HALIFAX
...CHARLOTTE...BUCKINGHAM...APPOMATTOX... AMHERST...CAMPBELL... AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS GUSTS COULD APPROACH...60 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS VIRGINIA
NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AT 20 TO 35 MPH.

WITH THE SATURATED SOIL THESE WINDS CAN EASILY UPROOT POORLY ROOTED
LARGE TREES.  NUMEROUS TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN BLOWN DOWN IN COUNTIES
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA LINE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRAN AND ISSUE WARNINGS AS NECESSARY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATNHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST ON THIS VERY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-062110-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 1996

...HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
   VALLEY AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA HAS BEEN
   CANCELED...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
   SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

AT NOON TROPICAL STORM FRAN WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTH LYNCHBURG
AND TRACKING TO THE NORTH AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL OVER MANY LOCATIONS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AT MIDDAY.  THE TREND HAD BEEN FOR THE RAIN TO BECOME
LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS TROPICAL
STORM FRAN TRACKS AWAY. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE BUT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE
WATCH AREA DUE TO RUNOFF FROM EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL BE MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVER THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
...BUT COULD RANGE UP TO AN INCH IN SOME OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST  VIRGINIA.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH AND MORE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE RIDGES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.  WITH THE SATURATED SOIL THESE WINDS CAN EASILY UPROOT
POORLY ROOTED LARGE TREES.

NOGUEIRA