Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
810 PM EDT THU SEP 5 1996

RECOMMENDATIONS...
WBC...THANKS FOR CALL.
CRW AND RDU...NONE.

SHORT DISCUSSION...
AT 7 PM...HUR FRAN WAS LCTD NR 33.4 N 78.1 W OR ABT 60 MILES S OF
WILMINGTON NC.  FRAN WAS MOVG TOWRDS N-NW NR 16 MPH WITH MAX SUS
WINDS NR 115 MPH. GOOD PIX OF FRAN ON KMHX WSR-88D.  TRACK OF HUR
FRAN WILL DETERMINE WX FORECAST. CRRNT NHC TRCK...SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST OF EARLIER PATH...WUD SLICE RNK CWA IN HALF. RAINY AND WINDY WX
EXPTED OVRNT AND FRI.  TIMING OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES LOOK GOOD FOR
CWA.
KK

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-061210-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
203 AM EDT FRI SEP 6 1996

...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
   NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR PARTS OF VIRGINIA FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
   EAST...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL OF
   NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
   WEST VIRGINIA...

HURRICANE FRAN MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9 PM THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR CAPE
FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. AT 2 AM THIS FRIDAY MORNING IT WAS MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE REMAINS
OF FRAN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INTO
VIRGINIA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS A LARGE THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHICH
RECEIVED FLOODING RAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. WEST OF THE TRACK 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH UP
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

ALSO...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE WATCH
INCLUDES HALIFAX...CHARLOTTE...AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

WINDS GUSTS COULD APPROACH HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH...EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. TO THE NORTH IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA
... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 60. THESE WINDS CAN EASILY UPROOT LARGE TREES IN
SATURATED GROUND. NUMEROUS TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN BLOWN DOWN IN
COUNTIES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA LINE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRAN AND ISSUE WARNINGS AS NECESSARY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST ON THIS VERY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

JDS

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-061510-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 AM EDT FRI SEP 6 1996

...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
   NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE
   WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL
   VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL OF
   NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
   WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 630 AM TROPICAL STORM FRAN WAS LOCATED OVER CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 20 MPH.

LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS A LARGE THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHICH
RECEIVED FLOODING RAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FROM 7 AM ON WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  WEST OF THE TRACK ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS.  RAINFALL WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH INCLUDES HALIFAX
...CHARLOTTE...BUCKINGHAM...APPOMATTOX... AMHERST...CAMPBELL... AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS GUSTS COULD APPROACH...60 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS VIRGINIA
NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AT 20 TO 35 MPH.

WITH THE SATURATED SOIL THESE WINDS CAN EASILY UPROOT POORLY ROOTED
LARGE TREES.  NUMEROUS TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN BLOWN DOWN IN COUNTIES
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA LINE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRAN AND ISSUE WARNINGS AS NECESSARY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATLHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST ON THIS VERY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-061710-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 AM EDT FRI SEP 6 1996

...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
   NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE
   WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL
   VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL OF
   NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
   WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 630 AM TROPICAL STORM FRAN WAS LOCATED OVER CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 20 MPH.

LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS A LARGE THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHICH
RECEIVED FLOODING RAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FROM 7 AM ON WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  WEST OF THE TRACK ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS.  RAINFALL WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH INCLUDES HALIFAX
...CHARLOTTE...BUCKINGHAM...APPOMATTOX... AMHERST...CAMPBELL... AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS GUSTS COULD APPROACH...60 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS VIRGINIA
NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AT 20 TO 35 MPH.

WITH THE SATURATED SOIL THESE WINDS CAN EASILY UPROOT POORLY ROOTED
LARGE TREES.  NUMEROUS TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN BLOWN DOWN IN COUNTIES
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA LINE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRAN AND ISSUE WARNINGS AS NECESSARY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATNHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST ON THIS VERY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

NOGUEIRA