Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ015>026-151200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
130 PM MST SUN JUL 14 1996

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER MAINLY LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.  AN ABOVE-
AVERAGE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL DESERT...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN
AREA...EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPPER LEVEL WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT STORMS WHICH FORM OVER THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST...AND GENERATE OUTFLOW WINDS THAT WILL REACH ADJACENT
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER NEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
DESERTS...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...BY LATE
THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.  AT 120 PM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY EXISTED OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  EARLY THIS MORNING...MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SURGED NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DEW POINT TEMPERATURE
...A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...IS IN THE MID
60S...WHICH IS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR MID JULY.

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...BUT
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  AT 1 PM...PHOENIX REPORTED PARTLY
SKIES AND 97 DEGREES WITH A DEW POINT TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF PIMA COUNTY HAVE BEEN HELD
DOWN DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...SO THE
ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA IS MORE STABLE AND LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AT 1 PM...TUCSON
REPORTED CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT RAIN...AND 79 DEGREES.

GREEN