Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

LARGE MCS OVR MISSOURI HAS EVOLVED INTO LONG LIVED BOW ECHO MOVING
THRU SE MO ATTM. WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PAST HOUR. COMPLEX IS FEEDING ON MDTLY STG LOW LVL
INFLOW OF VERY UNSTBL AIR...WITH CAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. MOST SVR
STORMS...I.E. BOW ECHO...SHOULD REMAIN IN MOST UNSTBL AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM MDH-EVV SOUTH. A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS LKLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. FFG VALUES SHOULD BE EXCEEDED FAIRLY QUICKLY
ACRS PARTS OF SRN IL AND SW INDIANA. DUE TO RAPID MVMT OF SYSTEM
AND HIER FFG VALUES OVER WRN KY...FF WATCH DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED
FOR SW KY ATTM...EXCEPT MAYBE OWB AREA.

AFTER MCS MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...SFC FRONT MAY BRIEFLY GET SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF KY TONIGHT. ETA BRINGS IT RIGHT BACK INTO KY MONDAY AFTN...SO
MC@S TRAIN MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HRS.
.
AREA              LOW    HIGH    POP
SW IN             060    076     4/7
SE MO             064    080     5/7
WRN KY            064    080     5/7
SRN IL            062    078     4/7

MY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-051900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1108 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL 4 PM...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

AT 11 AM...RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...SOME OF WHICH
WERE SEVERE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK
...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

MONITOR LATER BROADCASTS FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED.

YORK