Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

LARGE MCS OVR MISSOURI HAS EVOLVED INTO LONG LIVED BOW ECHO MOVING
THRU SE MO ATTM. WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PAST HOUR. COMPLEX IS FEEDING ON MDTLY STG LOW LVL
INFLOW OF VERY UNSTBL AIR...WITH CAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. MOST SVR
STORMS...I.E. BOW ECHO...SHOULD REMAIN IN MOST UNSTBL AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM MDH-EVV SOUTH. A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS LKLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. FFG VALUES SHOULD BE EXCEEDED FAIRLY QUICKLY
ACRS PARTS OF SRN IL AND SW INDIANA. DUE TO RAPID MVMT OF SYSTEM
AND HIER FFG VALUES OVER WRN KY...FF WATCH DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED
FOR SW KY ATTM...EXCEPT MAYBE OWB AREA.

AFTER MCS MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...SFC FRONT MAY BRIEFLY GET SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF KY TONIGHT. ETA BRINGS IT RIGHT BACK INTO KY MONDAY AFTN...SO
MC@S TRAIN MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HRS.
.
AREA              LOW    HIGH    POP
SW IN             060    076     4/7
SE MO             064    080     5/7
WRN KY            064    080     5/7
SRN IL            062    078     4/7

MY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-051900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1108 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL 4 PM...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

AT 11 AM...RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...SOME OF WHICH
WERE SEVERE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK
...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

MONITOR LATER BROADCASTS FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED.

YORK

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-052000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS RACING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...AND WILL AFFECT WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BY 4 PM. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN PARTS OF THESE AREAS. STAY
TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS.

YORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1240 PM    VAN BUREN                 MO   70-80 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED
05/05/96   CARTER                         BY COUNTY SHERIFF

1258 PM    PEIDMONT                  MO   NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...WINDOWS
05/05/96   WAYNE                          BLOWN OUT OF HOUSES AND
                                          AWNINGS BLOWN OFF HOUSES

0125 PM    SO. OF POPLAR BLUFF       MO   GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED BY
05/05/96   BUTLER                         EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

0127 PM    POPLAR BLUFF              lMO   TREE DOWN AND TELEPHONE POLE
05/05/96   BUTLER                         DOWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0131 PM    NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY  MO   60-70 MPH WINDS REPORTED BY
05/05/96   BUTLER                         EOC

0145 PM    DEXTER                    MO   SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES
05/05/96   STODDARD                       DOWN

0155 PM    CARTER                    MO   TREES DOWN 5 MILES SOUTH OF
05/05/96   RIPLEY                         OF CARTER

0156 PM    NEAR MARBLE HILL          MO   NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE
05/05/96   BOLLINGER                      COUNTY REPORTED BY EOC
KEYSOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0131 PM    NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY  MO   60-70 MPH WINDS REPORTED BY
05/05/96   BUTLER                         EOC

0145 PM    DEXTER                    MO   SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES
05/05/96   STODDARD                       DOWN

0155 PM    CARTER                    MO   TREES DOWN 5 MILES SOUTH OF
05/05/96   RIPLEY                         OF CARTER

0156 PM    NEAR MARBLE HILL          MO   NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE
05/05/96   BOLLINGER                      COUNTY REPORTED BY EOC
KEYSOR