Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
135 PM CST MON MAR 18 1996

ACTIVE WX EVENT BEGINNING TO UNFOLD AS DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVR NRN
LA EJECTS EWRD INTO A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH RW/TRW+ DVLPNG
RAPIDLY AS WE SPEAK.  MODIFIED SIL 12Z SOUNDINGS WITH T-MAX IN THE
MID 70S AND DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S PLACES NRN GULF STATES
UNDER 62 M/S >> 120+ KNOT POTENTIAL STORM UPDRAFTS AND THIS ALONG
WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED WBZERO'S AT 8-9 KFT
WILL SUSTAIN THE MAKING OF LRG A IN STORM CORES. ALSO CAPES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG IS OF XTRM IMPORTANCE AND VILS OF THE DAY
IN THE MID 30S WILL MAKE FOR ACTIVE WARNING SCENARIO THIS AFTN AND
EVE. IT LOOKS AS THO FRONT WILL BLAST THRU AREA ATTM (00-03Z) TIME
FRAME TUE MRNG >> MON NITE. AS MODELS AGREE ON PASSAGE OF MAJOR PVA
VORT LOBE WHICH WILL ACT TO TILT L/W TROF OVR NATIONS MID SXN AND
ALLOW COLD AIR TO PLUNGE SWRD DURING THE PREDAWN AND DAYLIGHT HRSx
TUE.  UNTIL THEN...HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS.  DID UP POPS A BIT DUE TO
PASSAGE OF RW/TWR+ DURING THE ERLY EVE HRS...WITH TMPS FALLING OFF
AFTER FROPA. (1) 47/59/34/52 3000   (2) 52/62/35/55 3000       GJM

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-190545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1138 AM CST MON MAR 18 1996

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN KANSAS CITY SAYS THAT THERE IS A HIGH
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ...WHICH CONTAINS VERY STRONG ISOLATED WIND
MAXIMA...WILL ENHANCE THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS POISED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN ALABAMA.  A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING
WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THEN LATER OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

INITIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH ABOUT 4
PM...BUT AFTER THAT TIME...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THEN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
RESIDENTS THAT LIVE EAST OF I-65 IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...LARGE DIAMETER HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE A STRONG
POSSIBILITY WITH THIS IMPENDING EVENT.

ALL PERSONS ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD HEED THIS STATEMENT AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER ...TV AND LOCAL RADIO STATIONS
FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

JMM