Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 1996

CURRENTLY...IR SATPIX  SHOW DEBRIS CLOUDS BEATING A HASTY RETREAT NE
ON STRONG (FOR JUNE) 20H 50KT WNDS. MORNING SNDGS SHOW MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN Y'DAY. EAST COAST PWATS 1.8 TO 2.0...WHICH WAS
UNDERPLAYED BY MODELS. 50H TEMPS STILL COOL (-10 AT MFL) AND LIKELY
-9 TO -11 AT CAPE. (**NOTE** THE -12.7 AT THE CAPE IS CONTAMINATED BY
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS SENSOR CAME OUT OF DEEP MOIST LYR AT 520MB.
MODIFYING SNDG AS IS WOULD LEAD TO DOUBLE DIGIT NEG LI!). FCST AFTNN
CAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 RANGE...SIMILAR TO SAT'DAY. HELICITY NON-
EXISTENT OR ACTUALLY NEGATIVE AS WINDS BACK FM SW/SSW TO S AT LOLVLS.

IR/VAPOR PIX SHOW LOW LVL SHRTWV TROF ROTATING THRU NE GOMEX/PNHNDL
ARND THE BASE OF BIG PINWHEELING UPR LOW OVR NRN MS. CONVECTION
CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG THIS BDRY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS OVER NRN FL. EAST COAST C-BRZ MAY NOT OCCUR UP THERE...GIVEN
STRONGER WRLY COMP TO LOW LVL FLOW. FARTHER SOUTH...WILL LIKELY BE
HELD UP RIGHT AT THE COAST...SO BEST CHC FOR STG/SVR WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH WEST COAST C-BRZ AGAIN
TODAY...AND AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC SCALE BDRY MOVG ACRS PENIN...
CANNOT RULE OUT STG/SVR STORMS ANYWHERE. WOULD NOT BE OPPOSED TO
WORDING "FEW STRONG STORMS PSBL" IN ZONES...AND HIKING COASTAL POPS
BACK UP TO 70/80.

CWF NOTE....BOY009 CURRENTLY SUS17G21 WITH SEAS 4-5FT AND HAS BEEN
CLOSE TO THIS MOST OF OVERNIGHT...SO MAY WANT TO TWEAK CWF WINDS/SEAS
TO ACCT FOR THIS. SCEC WOULDN'T HURT.

CRISTALDI

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-091630-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 1996

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SEABREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROGRESS
RAPIDLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST...AS THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE EAST
COAST GETS HELD UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

A FEW STORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP MIDDAY ALONG THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES...THEN AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE...STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.

IN ADDITION...STORMS FIRING ALONG A LOW LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
LIKELY AFFECT AREAS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL AND ORLANDO NORTH THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID...TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...ANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTDOORS...PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND GO INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A
THUNDERSTORM.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

MARINE OUTLOOK...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 35 KNOTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

CRISTALDI