Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EST SUN MAR 31 1996

CAP HOLDING STRONG AS SEA BREEZE YET TO FORM WITHIN CWA AND WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT TO BREAK WITHOUT MESOSCALE FORCING. SINCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW CONTINUES WEAK AND VERY LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING
AT COF AND MBF...STILL THINK ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE MOST AREAS
LATE. LATEST ADAP SHOWS THE STRONGEST CAP ACROSS MID PORTION OF CWA
AT 3 DEGREES. HOWEVER...EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TRW. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH WERE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE. WITH VERY
LOW WET BULB ZERO READINGS...ANY STORMS WHICH DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME PROLIFIC HAIL PRODUCERS. COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO REACH NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA EARLY AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AND BE SOUTH OF AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH RAPID DRYING POST
FROPA. SCATTERED RW/TRW POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MINIMAL AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY IN ADVANCE.

SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-311830-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1200 PM EST SUN MAR 31 1996

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY.
ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAYS WEATHER SYSTEM...IT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH UNSTABLE AIR STILL IN PLACE AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY... THE SEVERITY OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BE SIMILAR.

SINCE WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS...LARGE HAIL WILL THE MAIN THREAT TODAY...HOWEVER ISOLATED
DAMAGE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AROUND MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL DRIFT INLAND
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES...THEN MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST DURING
THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE LOCATION IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES OR IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY AGAIN
BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUTS.

SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-311830-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1200 PM EST SUN MAR 31 1996

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY.
ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAYS WEATHER SYSTEM...IT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH UNSTABLE AIR STILL IN PLACE AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY... THE SEVERITY OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BE SIMILAR.

SINCE WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS...LARGE HAIL WILL THE MAIN THREAT TODAY...HOWEVER ISOLATED
DAMAGE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AROUND MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL DRIFT INLAND
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES...THEN MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST DURING
THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF INTO THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE LOCATION IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES OR IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY AGAIN
BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUxCE HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUTS.

SPRATT