Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
802 PM EST WED MAR 27 1996

OUTFLOW BDRY CONVECTION NOT DYING OFF AS FAST AS I HAD HOPED. SHUD BE
AFFECTING NRN CWA SHORTLY...G38 AT BKV WITHIN THE PAST HR SO WILL
HAVE TO MOINTOR PSBL STRNG/SVR TSTSM THREAT. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL A
CONCERN AS LARGE AREA R/R+ BEHIND SQLN CUD RESULT IN 2-3 INCH AMTS
OVER NRN CWA. NOT SO SURE WHAT SRN END OF LINE WILL DO...MAY DSPT
SOME BEFORE MOVING ACROTSS SRN CWA. WUD SUGGEST UPPING POPS FROM
MCO-CAPE NORTH TO 80. SVR FOR SUMTER CO JUST ALARMED AT AFOS...SO
GOTTA RUN.

CRISTALDI

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-280230-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
755 PM EST WED MAR 27 1996

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT 745 PM...THESE STORMS EXTENDED
FROM CROSS CITY TO BROOKSVILLE...TO THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ALTHOUGH THIS LINE HAS WEAKENED SOME DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SOME
STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH OR SO OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH...THEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO ORLANDO AND SANFORD BETWEEN 800 AND
1000 PM. THE STORMS WILL THEN AFFECT AREAS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH
TO FLAGLER BEACH BETWEEN 1000 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
HIGHER...FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY
SOME SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREA SUCH AS STREETS...PARKING LOTS...SMALL STREAMS AND
CULVERTS.

MARINE OUTLOOK...THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS NORTH
OF THE CAPE BETWEEN 1100 PM AND MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-280230-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
755 PM EST WED MAR 27 1996

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT 745 PM...THESE STORMS EXTENDED
FROM CROSS CITY TO BROOKSVILLE...TO THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ALTHOUGH THIS LINE HAS WEAKENED SOME DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SOME
STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH OR SO OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH...THEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO ORLANDO AND SANFORD BETWEEN 800 AND
1000 PM. THE STORMS WILL THEN AFFECT AREAS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH
TO FLAGLER BEACH BETWEEN 1000 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
HIGHER...FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY
SOME SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREA SUCH AS STREETS...PARKING LOTS...SMALL STREAMS AND
CULVERTS.

MARINE OUTLOOK...THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS NORTH
OF THE CAPE BETWEEN 1100 PM AND MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.