Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST THU MAR 28 1996

THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING N CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..ALSO AREA OF
TRW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF MAIN LINE IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GETTING INTO MCO AREA SOONER THAN EXPECTED.
EXPECT AREA TO FILL IN TOWARD COAST BETWEEN DAB AND CAPE WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST AND MERGE WITH ACTIVITY
TO NORTH. PREVIOUS REASONING ON SVR POTENTIAL GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR
STILL STANDS. SFC BASED LI'S -8... VWP SHOWS SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR
THAN EXPECTED BUT LOW LEVEL CURVATURE OF FLOW IS FAVORABLE. MAIN
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE MICROBURSTS AND HAIL BUT MAY BE MORE MARGINAL
IN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND STILL THINK STRONGER CELLS NORTH OF MCO- XMR
LINE. VERY MOIST AIRMASS FEEDING CU BANDS INTO CENTRAL FL FROM SOUTH
AND ISOLTED TRW MAY DEVELOP FURTHER AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTION AND
INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NO REAL HINT OF A SEA NBREEZE WITH
FLOW PARALELL TO COAST SOUTH OF CAPE JUST GENERAL CLUMPING OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN STRONGLY CURVED FLOW NORTH OF MCO/CAPE.
HAGEMEYER

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-282130-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1134 AM EST THU MAR 28 1996

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE  EVENING...

AT 1130 AM A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REDEVELOPING
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE GULF SYSTEM IN THE
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT HEAT AND MOISTURE, AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS SHOULD EFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUCH AS
LAKE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE GREATER. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE THUNDERSTORM WINDS OVER 60 MPH ...HAIL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
MELBOURNE SHOULD HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GENERAL THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REACH LAKE COUNTY BETWEEN 230 AND 330PM.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
BE ALERT TO THE APPROACH OF HEAVY WEATHER. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

HAGEMEYER

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-290025-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 PM EST THU MAR 28 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA
...ORANGE...BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 9PM...

AT 315 PM EST MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF VERY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SANFORD TO LAKELAND AND A SECOND LINE OF
VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXTENDED FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO WEST
OF LEESBURG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
LAKE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTY BETWEEN 315 AND 5PM.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL..ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED
FROM THESE STORMS IN MARION COUNTY AT 245PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER...LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER.

...SPECIAL NOTICE TO MARINERS...
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET. BOATERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPID
APPROACH OF THESE STORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TAKE ACTIONS TO
AVOID BEING CAUGHT BY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OPEN OCEAN IN
SMALL BOATS.

HAGEMEYER